{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "phaseId": "P07.3",
  "contractId": "AGI-PROBABILISTIC-UNDERWRITING-001",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:26:42.778Z",
  "status": "ARMED_BLOCKED_BY_COMPLETE_BASELINE",
  "decision": "WAITING_FOR_COMPLETE_POINT_IN_TIME_BASELINE",
  "lineage": {
    "contractHash": "8c7fe500bd5eab44e2743e0aefcc5fb37981b566b20412efd8c89ed4a7a4c7bd",
    "pointInTimeCaptureHash": "16e5a10f6c4dbaeeeed1bef7b17896c0251c8eda2dd867c9d277b661fd681b58",
    "liveEventIntakeHash": "9a7ceac33e4cc9d950d99a2ef710e2e5d45a835fac41fcc4346f825a2b17630c",
    "hypothesisLedgerHash": "8c1ee5613007f1bece2a7221fc3441c620589173fe36126ef8c5e6566f131151",
    "selectedEventReceiptHash": null,
    "hypothesisHash": null,
    "completeBaselineHash": null,
    "machinePacketHash": null
  },
  "method": {
    "name": "BOUNDED_BINARY_BAYES_V1",
    "priorSource": "FROZEN_HYPOTHESIS_CONFIDENCE",
    "equation": "posterior_odds = prior_odds * likelihood_ratio",
    "surpriseEquation": "direction_sign * (observed_value - consensus_expected_value) / abs(consensus_expected_value)",
    "normalizedEquation": "surprise / (minimum_magnitude_pct / 100)",
    "directionSigns": {
      "INCREASE": 1,
      "DECREASE": -1
    },
    "signalBuckets": [
      {
        "id": "FALSIFIER_REACHED",
        "maximumNormalizedSurprise": -1,
        "likelihoodRatio": 0.2
      },
      {
        "id": "CONTRADICTORY",
        "maximumNormalizedSurprise": -0.25,
        "likelihoodRatio": 0.5
      },
      {
        "id": "NEUTRAL",
        "maximumNormalizedSurprise": 0.25,
        "likelihoodRatio": 1
      },
      {
        "id": "SUPPORTIVE",
        "maximumNormalizedSurprise": 1,
        "likelihoodRatio": 1.5
      },
      {
        "id": "THESIS_CONFIRMING",
        "maximumNormalizedSurprise": null,
        "likelihoodRatio": 3
      }
    ],
    "posteriorFloor": 0.05,
    "posteriorCeiling": 0.95,
    "roundingDecimals": 6,
    "oneEventOneUpdate": true,
    "calibrationOutcomeRequiredLater": true
  },
  "blocker": "P07.3 cannot run until all seven P07.2C component receipts seal one complete pre-event baseline.",
  "update": null,
  "metrics": {
    "requiredBaselineComponentCount": 7,
    "completeBaselineCount": 0,
    "machinePacketCount": 0,
    "probabilisticUpdateCount": 0,
    "valuationCount": 0,
    "riskBudgetCount": 0,
    "portfolioWeightChangeCount": 0,
    "tradeAuthorizationCount": 0,
    "alphaClaimCount": 0
  },
  "nextGate": {
    "phaseId": "P07.4",
    "name": "RISK_AND_COST_MAPPING",
    "entryRule": "P07.4 opens only for a hash-sealed probabilistic update with exact event, hypothesis, baseline, source and model lineage.",
    "state": "BLOCKED_UNTIL_HASH_SEALED_PROBABILISTIC_UPDATE"
  },
  "boundaries": {
    "eventSelectedByThisStage": false,
    "baselineCreatedByThisStage": false,
    "manualProbabilityUsed": false,
    "valuationCreated": false,
    "riskBudgetCreated": false,
    "portfolioWeightsChanged": false,
    "tradeAuthorized": false,
    "alphaClaimCreated": false
  },
  "contentHash": "385fcc6a7070c1ee2ccfe14e97777c7f545a9c436c30be1ec82fd3c2a318fec2"
}