{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "phaseId": "P07.5",
  "contractId": "AGI-SHADOW-EXPECTED-VALUE-001",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-17T12:26:42.778Z",
  "status": "ARMED_BLOCKED_BY_RISK_COST_MAP",
  "decision": "WAITING_FOR_HASH_SEALED_RISK_COST_MAP",
  "lineage": {
    "contractHash": "791dc8cc001c31b9850738d636a40111948ed931caaa07b3153639d3563c0ece",
    "riskCostMappingHash": "5a674097d8c2773c40bd92493eeed7a51282647aaca0c4f72cf062023f8febc8",
    "riskCostMapHash": null,
    "machineValuationPacketHash": null
  },
  "method": {
    "name": "DISTRIBUTION_WEIGHTED_QUARTER_KELLY_V1",
    "scenarioIds": [
      "BEAR",
      "BASE",
      "BULL"
    ],
    "probabilitySumTolerance": 0.000001,
    "fractionalKelly": 0.25,
    "maximumFullKellyFraction": 1,
    "maximumWorstCasePortfolioLossContribution": 0.01,
    "minimumHorizonMonths": 12,
    "maximumHorizonMonths": 60,
    "grossReturnEquation": "intrinsic_value_per_share / reference_price - 1",
    "netReturnEquation": "gross_return - round_trip_cost_bps / 10000",
    "expectedNetReturnEquation": "sum(scenario_probability * scenario_net_return)",
    "approximateKellyEquation": "expected_net_return / sum(scenario_probability * scenario_net_return^2)",
    "shadowWeightEquation": "min(P07.4_research_ceiling, quarter_kelly_weight, worst_case_loss_capacity)",
    "roundingDecimals": 6
  },
  "blocker": "P07.5 cannot run until P07.4 seals a positive research ceiling and its implementation-cost hurdle.",
  "valuationDistribution": null,
  "shadowProposal": null,
  "metrics": {
    "sealedRiskCostMapCount": 0,
    "machineValuationPacketCount": 0,
    "valuationDistributionCount": 0,
    "expectedValueEvaluationCount": 0,
    "shadowProposalCount": 0,
    "governanceApprovalCount": 0,
    "liveRiskBudgetCount": 0,
    "livePortfolioWeightChangeCount": 0,
    "tradeAuthorizationCount": 0,
    "alphaClaimCount": 0
  },
  "nextGate": {
    "phaseId": "P07.6",
    "name": "GOVERNANCE_AND_FORWARD_PRICING",
    "entryRule": "P07.6 may open only for a sealed shadow proposal, independent evidence and risk review, and the first eligible market close recorded strictly after a governance decision.",
    "state": "BLOCKED_UNTIL_SHADOW_PROPOSAL_SEALED"
  },
  "boundaries": {
    "manualValuationInputUsed": false,
    "retrospectiveScenarioTuningUsed": false,
    "liveRiskBudgetCreated": false,
    "livePortfolioWeightsChanged": false,
    "liveOrderCreated": false,
    "tradeAuthorized": false,
    "alphaClaimCreated": false
  },
  "contentHash": "15394e8a5919153021f587835b4eff9740713b11fac230a986f0092260c99a43"
}