{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "experimentId": "EXP-ALPHA-001",
  "phaseId": "P06.0",
  "recordedAt": "2026-09-09T06:16:00Z",
  "status": "PRECOMMITTED_NOT_STARTED",
  "purpose": "Demonstrate the evidence-to-position function prospectively before making any alpha claim.",
  "question": "Can governed adaptation add net, factor-aware value over the frozen AGI Core 25 without converting continuous intelligence into continuous trading?",
  "initialState": {
    "source": "state/alpha-experiments/EXP-ALPHA-001/core-portfolio.csv",
    "sha256": "cf5b4470c4205b56edcd1bce260b76234a0cdf7c9fe508632bb83fc531cb49e3",
    "equityPositions": 25,
    "reservePositions": 1,
    "targetWeight": 1,
    "reserveWeight": 0.035,
    "leverage": 0
  },
  "activation": {
    "state": "AWAITING_PRODUCTION_RELEASE_RECEIPT",
    "pilotCalendarDays": 90,
    "startRule": "First full trading session after the production release receipt freezes the mandate and opening market snapshot.",
    "currentForwardObservations": 0,
    "minimumMonthlyOutOfSampleObservationsForAlphaClaim": 24,
    "pilotMayProveAlpha": false
  },
  "arms": [
    {
      "id": "AGI_CORE_25",
      "role": "CONTROL",
      "openingState": "Exact frozen portfolio and weights.",
      "scheduledRule": "Quarterly banded rebalance only.",
      "eventRule": "Risk intervention only after a frozen structural-break, fraud, sanctions, governance or hard-limit rule fires.",
      "targetMutation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "AGI_ADAPTIVE",
      "role": "CHALLENGER",
      "openingState": "Same opening portfolio, weights, capital and price timestamp as the control.",
      "scheduledRule": "One governed target-weight decision at each month end.",
      "eventRule": "An additional decision window opens only after every material-event gate passes.",
      "targetMutation": true
    }
  ],
  "clocks": [
    {
      "id": "INTELLIGENCE",
      "cadence": "CONTINUOUS_DAILY",
      "action": "Collect, timestamp, deduplicate and challenge evidence. No capital action."
    },
    {
      "id": "UNDERWRITING",
      "cadence": "WEEKLY_AND_EVENT_DRIVEN",
      "action": "Re-underwrite causal claims, expectations, falsifiers and risk. No automatic trade."
    },
    {
      "id": "CAPITAL",
      "cadence": "MONTHLY_WITH_MATERIAL_EVENT_EXCEPTION",
      "action": "Permit a shadow target change only after the full governed record exists."
    }
  ],
  "books": [
    {
      "id": "ALPHA_BOOK",
      "function": "Express security-specific expectation gaps.",
      "initialState": "LONG_BASELINE_ONLY",
      "constraint": "Short candidates remain research-only until borrow, cost and legal controls exist."
    },
    {
      "id": "FACTOR_HEDGE_BOOK",
      "function": "Reduce unwanted market, technology, semiconductor, rates, FX and geography exposure.",
      "initialState": "SPECIFICATION_ONLY",
      "constraint": "No hedge label without protected exposure, loss scenario, ratio, basis and carry."
    },
    {
      "id": "TAIL_INSURANCE_BOOK",
      "function": "Seek convex payoff in a defined crash or volatility regime.",
      "initialState": "SPECIFICATION_ONLY",
      "constraint": "Premium budget, expiry and failure mode must be explicit."
    },
    {
      "id": "LIQUIDITY_RESERVE",
      "function": "Prevent forced selling and fund governed rebalancing.",
      "initialState": "SHV_3_5_PERCENT",
      "constraint": "Must remain liquid and unpledged."
    }
  ],
  "materialEventGate": [
    {
      "id": "SOURCE",
      "rule": "A dated primary or approved system source supports the factual change."
    },
    {
      "id": "NOVELTY",
      "rule": "The change is not a duplicate, stale item or fact already present in the frozen thesis."
    },
    {
      "id": "CAUSALITY",
      "rule": "A named AGI causal mechanism and affected cash-flow or risk variable are identified."
    },
    {
      "id": "EXPECTATIONS",
      "rule": "The record states what the market appears to imply and why a gap may remain."
    },
    {
      "id": "INVESTABILITY",
      "rule": "Instrument, liquidity, executable cost and access are specified without invented availability."
    },
    {
      "id": "ADVERSARIAL",
      "rule": "Counter-case, falsifier, expiry and independent challenge are complete."
    },
    {
      "id": "PORTFOLIO",
      "rule": "Sizing, factor effect, hedge classification and risk-budget effect are recorded."
    }
  ],
  "pipeline": [
    "FACT_CAPTURED",
    "EVIDENCE_VERIFIED",
    "CAUSAL_LINK_MAPPED",
    "EXPECTATION_GAP_STATED",
    "INSTRUMENT_SELECTED",
    "SIZE_AND_BOOK_ASSIGNED",
    "HEDGE_AND_FALSIFIER_RECORDED",
    "GOVERNANCE_DECISION_HASHED",
    "NEXT_ELIGIBLE_CLOSE_PRICED"
  ],
  "execution": {
    "valuationCadence": "DAILY_AFTER_CLOSE",
    "coreBandPolicy": "max(25% of position target, 0.75 percentage point); layer max(20% of target, 2.5 percentage points); reserve hard band 1% to 8%",
    "adaptiveScheduledWindow": "MONTH_END",
    "eventPriceRule": "Use the first eligible market close strictly after the decision receipt; never use a pre-event or retroactive price.",
    "orderRule": "No market order at the open; model limit/VWAP execution with a maximum 5% ADV per day.",
    "costModel": "REPORT.md half-spread, commission, applicable sell fees and square-root impact; taxes, foreign custody, FX withholding and short borrow remain explicit missing costs.",
    "dayTrading": false,
    "intradayRoundTrips": false
  },
  "scorecard": [
    {
      "id": "PROCESS_COMPLETION",
      "metric": "Valid evidence-to-position records versus rejected or no-action records."
    },
    {
      "id": "NET_EXCESS_CORE",
      "metric": "Adaptive net return minus AGI Core 25 net return on identical dates."
    },
    {
      "id": "FACTOR_ATTRIBUTION",
      "metric": "Return unexplained by market, technology, semiconductor, rates, FX and geography factors."
    },
    {
      "id": "SURVIVAL",
      "metric": "Maximum drawdown, downside capture, liquidity and hard-limit breaches."
    },
    {
      "id": "IMPLEMENTATION",
      "metric": "Turnover, modeled cost, participation and time-to-execute."
    },
    {
      "id": "CALIBRATION",
      "metric": "Resolved forecast probabilities, hit rate and preserved null or failed hypotheses."
    }
  ],
  "pilotPass": "The pipeline produces at least one fully reproducible pre-outcome decision record, preserves no-action and failed records, prices it only after governance and violates no capital firewall.",
  "pilotFail": "Any retroactive price, mutable opening state, missing counter-case, unmodeled executable cost, unauthorized capital action or inability to reproduce a decision fails the demonstration.",
  "claimBoundary": "A 90-day process demonstration is not evidence of durable alpha. Only the later prospective record may test that claim.",
  "realMoney": false,
  "tradeAuthorized": false,
  "portfolioWeightsChanged": false
}