{ "schemaVersion": 1, "handoffId": "2026-09-08T15-32-54-478Z", "createdAt": "2026-09-08T15:32:54.478Z", "phaseTransition": { "closedPhase": "P05", "closedState": "complete", "openedPhase": "P06", "openedState": "active", "firstP06Step": "freeze_matched_us_china_hypotheses_measurement_contract_and_falsifiers_before_outcomes" }, "sourceRetrospective": { "retrospectiveId": "2026-09-08T15-10-12-172Z", "runHash": "c877eeaec51df963fccd36bd1d5742ce53f414722a1e47c3fb0b6ae49abe0318", "reusableControlCount": 7, "safeFailureCount": 3 }, "selectionRationale": { "protocol": "maximum_contrast_methodology_stress_test_not_expected_return_ranking", "population": "five issuers represented by multiple listed securities, not five approved portfolio holdings", "selectionBasis": [ "distinct_positions_in_the_agi_value_chain", "contrasting_cash_generation_and_capital_intensity", "contrasting_security_access_and_structural_claims", "heterogeneous_primary_source_and_accounting_surfaces", "finite_pilot_scope_with_reusable_global_methodology" ], "excludedSelectionBasis": [ "expected_return_rank", "current_valuation_rank", "market_cap_rank", "political_preference", "trade_readiness" ], "issuers": [ { "issuerId": "CN-ALI", "valueChainRole": "hyperscale_cloud_model_platform_and_commerce_cash_engine", "stressTest": "Can visible AI demand survive capex, dilution, VIE and cross-venue owner-cash reconciliation?", "contrast": "asset_light_platform_cash_engine_meets_accelerating_infrastructure_spend", "company": "Alibaba", "legalName": "Alibaba Group Holding Limited", "slug": "alibaba", "securityCount": 3, "primaryResearchSecurityId": "ALI-NYSE-ADS", "securities": [ { "id": "ALI-NYSE-ADS", "venue": "NYSE", "ticker": "BABA", "type": "ADS", "currency": "USD" }, { "id": "ALI-HKEX-HKD", "venue": "HKEX", "ticker": "9988", "type": "ordinary share", "currency": "HKD" }, { "id": "ALI-HKEX-CNY", "venue": "HKEX", "ticker": "89988", "type": "RMB counter", "currency": "CNY" } ] }, { "issuerId": "CN-TCEHY", "valueChainRole": "consumer_distribution_platform_cloud_and_model_deployment", "stressTest": "Can a self-funded distribution platform isolate AI economics from group cash and capital returns?", "contrast": "strong_cash_generation_with_partial_ai_specific_disclosure", "company": "Tencent", "legalName": "Tencent Holdings Limited", "slug": "tencent", "securityCount": 3, "primaryResearchSecurityId": "TENCENT-HKEX-HKD", "securities": [ { "id": "TENCENT-HKEX-HKD", "venue": "HKEX", "ticker": "0700", "type": "ordinary share", "currency": "HKD" }, { "id": "TENCENT-HKEX-CNY", "venue": "HKEX", "ticker": "80700", "type": "RMB counter", "currency": "CNY" }, { "id": "TENCENT-OTC-ADR", "venue": "US OTC", "ticker": "TCEHY", "type": "ADR", "currency": "USD" } ] }, { "issuerId": "CN-BIDU", "valueChainRole": "foundation_models_ai_cloud_search_and_autonomy", "stressTest": "Can direct AI revenue labels bridge to durable owner cash through legacy decline and restructuring?", "contrast": "direct_model_exposure_with_weaker_cash_conversion_and_separation_risk", "company": "Baidu", "legalName": "Baidu, Inc.", "slug": "baidu", "securityCount": 3, "primaryResearchSecurityId": "BAIDU-NASDAQ-ADS", "securities": [ { "id": "BAIDU-NASDAQ-ADS", "venue": "NASDAQ", "ticker": "BIDU", "type": "ADS", "currency": "USD" }, { "id": "BAIDU-HKEX-HKD", "venue": "HKEX", "ticker": "9888", "type": "Class A ordinary share", "currency": "HKD" }, { "id": "BAIDU-HKEX-CNY", "venue": "HKEX", "ticker": "89888", "type": "RMB counter", "currency": "CNY" } ] }, { "issuerId": "CN-SMIC", "valueChainRole": "domestic_semiconductor_foundry_bottleneck", "stressTest": "Can strategic scarcity be separated from export controls, subsidies and extreme sustaining capital needs?", "contrast": "sovereign_supply_bottleneck_with_heavy_capital_intensity_and_multi_venue_identity", "company": "SMIC", "legalName": "Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation", "slug": "smic", "securityCount": 2, "primaryResearchSecurityId": "SMIC-HKEX-H", "securities": [ { "id": "SMIC-HKEX-H", "venue": "HKEX", "ticker": "00981", "type": "H share", "currency": "HKD" }, { "id": "SMIC-SSE-A", "venue": "SSE STAR", "ticker": "688981", "type": "A share", "currency": "CNY" } ] }, { "issuerId": "CN-GDS", "valueChainRole": "power_constrained_data_center_infrastructure", "stressTest": "Can physical AI demand become shareholder cash after development capex, leverage, leases and structural claims?", "contrast": "contracted_physical_capacity_with_financing_and_owner_access_complexity", "company": "GDS", "legalName": "GDS Holdings Limited", "slug": "gds", "securityCount": 2, "primaryResearchSecurityId": "GDS-NASDAQ-ADS", "securities": [ { "id": "GDS-NASDAQ-ADS", "venue": "NASDAQ", "ticker": "GDS", "type": "ADS", "currency": "USD" }, { "id": "GDS-HKEX-A", "venue": "HKEX", "ticker": "9698", "type": "Class A ordinary share", "currency": "HKD" } ] } ], "expansionRule": "Other China issuers remain in the 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"CTRL-CONTENT-ADDRESSED-ARCHIVE", "layer": "collection", "role": "provenance", "invariant": "Every retrieved object is bounded, hashed and attached to an immutable run." }, { "id": "CTRL-LINE-ADDRESSED-EVIDENCE", "layer": "analysis", "role": "evidence_addressing", "invariant": "Machine readings cite archived page/line coordinates rather than live-page prose." }, { "id": "CTRL-CLOSED-CITATION-LANES", "layer": "analysis", "role": "model_boundary", "invariant": "Each task can emit only its frozen task ID and allowlisted citation IDs." }, { "id": "CTRL-ADVERSARIAL-NO-UPGRADE", "layer": "verification", "role": "adversarial_check", "invariant": "A separate source-bound pass may confirm or downgrade but cannot upgrade evidence." }, { "id": "CTRL-EXACT-SCOPE-GOVERNANCE", "layer": "governance", "role": "human_governance", "invariant": "A decision binds one exact docket and cannot survive changed receipts by implication." }, { "id": "CTRL-AUTOMATIC-GAP-ROUTER", "layer": "router", "role": 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"capitalLeak": false } ], "regionalAdapters": [ { "id": "ADAPTER-OFFICIAL-SOURCES", "state": "region_specific", "role": "issuer, exchange and regulator discovery contracts" }, { "id": "ADAPTER-SECURITY-IDENTITY", "state": "region_specific", "role": "company, security, venue, currency and depositary mapping" }, { "id": "ADAPTER-MARKET-CALENDAR-FX", "state": "not_decision_grade", "role": "point-in-time price, FX and market-calendar normalization" }, { "id": "ADAPTER-LIQUIDITY-COSTS", "state": "not_decision_grade", "role": "executable liquidity, spread, tax, custody and venue costs" } ], "unresolvedIssuerStates": [ { "issuerId": "CN-ALI", "company": "Alibaba", "state": "evidence_blocked", "blockingTrackCount": 2, "activeCollectionRouteCount": 1, "governancePendingCount": 1, "issuerVerdict": "not_decided" }, { "issuerId": "CN-TCEHY", "company": "Tencent", "state": "evidence_blocked", "blockingTrackCount": 2, "activeCollectionRouteCount": 1, "governancePendingCount": 1, "issuerVerdict": 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