12 / 26 · Networking

ANET

Arista Networks

3%target weight

Latest available close$204.52-3% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Special model required

Model familyEquity cash-per-share DCF

OCF − cash capex / diluted shareNo valid reported proxy

Price / reported cash proxy—

Required adjustment tests

cycle
Use through-cycle demand, margins and utilization rather than a peak or trough year.
concentration
Stress customer concentration, insourcing and contract cancellation.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.
capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2025-01-01 → 2025-12-31Filed: 2026-02-17Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	9,005,700,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	3,856,100,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	3,511,400,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	4,371,900,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	—	—	Missing / manual review
Share-based compensation	439,200,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	1,275,700,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	1,963,900,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	—	—	Missing / manual review
Noncurrent long-term debt	—	—	Missing / manual review

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)— USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

DCF with explicit hardware-margin competition and recurring software/service contribution.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q2 2026 · Published 2026-08-04 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: Revenue was $3.036bn, up 37.7% year over year.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: Ethernet may gain AI-network spending share; open standards do not automatically guarantee Arista captures the margin.
03 / What to measure next: Disclosed AI-network revenue, large-customer concentration, gross margin, deferred revenue and cash conversion.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if AI-network deployments shift to rivals or white boxes while Arista’s margins or customer retention weaken.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: DCF with explicit hardware-margin competition and recurring software/service contribution.
06 / Still missing: Missing: comparable AI-fabric share data; headline growth is not proof of share gains.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

High-speed Ethernet AI fabrics

Ethernet can scale as an open AI fabric while EOS gives Arista a software-quality advantage.

Principal risk

Customer concentration, InfiniBand and hyperscaler self-design.

What the daily radar monitors

01AI networking revenuePRIMARY KPI

02800G/1.6T adoptionTREND + GUIDANCE

03Cloud concentrationTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.