14 / 26 · Power + grid

CEG

Constellation Energy

2.5%target weight

Latest available close$295.790.6% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Reported proxy available · normalization pending

Model familyPlant and contracted-cash-flow DCF

OCF − cash capex / diluted share4.1 USD

Price / reported cash proxy62.1×

Required adjustment tests

outage fuel
Model outages, fuel, refurbishment, hedges and decommissioning obligations.
net debt
Reconcile debt, cash, preferred claims and acquisition funding exactly once.
contract quality
Convert backlog/RPO into dated probability-weighted cash; never count face value as equity.
capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2025-01-01 → 2025-12-31Filed: 2026-02-24Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	22,663,000,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	3,086,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	2,319,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	4,237,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	2,949,000,000	USD	us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment ↗
Share-based compensation	—	—	Missing / manual review
Weighted diluted shares	314,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	3,641,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	92,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	7,250,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)1,288,000,000 USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Plant/contract cash-flow scenarios plus net debt; separate merchant-price exposure from contracted revenue.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q2 2026 · Published 2026-08-06 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: The company reported an additional 920 MW of long-term power purchase agreements.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: Firm power scarcity can create valuable contracts, but megawatts alone say nothing about equity cash returns.
03 / What to measure next: Contract duration/pricing when disclosed, fuel/hedges, outages, maintenance, debt and integration costs.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if contract economics deteriorate after fuel, refurbishment, regulation or counterparty costs.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Plant/contract cash-flow scenarios plus net debt; separate merchant-price exposure from contracted revenue.
06 / Still missing: Missing: net cash economics of the new contracts; MW announcements are not valuation inputs by themselves.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Carbon-free baseload generation

Round-the-clock nuclear output is valuable to data centers with large stable loads.

Principal risk

PPA regulation, outages, political scrutiny and merchant-price exposure.

What the daily radar monitors

01Data-center PPAsPRIMARY KPI

02Capacity factorTREND + GUIDANCE

03Regulatory decisionsTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.