20 / 26 · Semicap + memory

AMAT

Applied Materials

1.5%target weight

Latest available close$464.24-6.7% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

Loading dated research data…

——

Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

Loading dated research…

NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Reported proxy available · normalization pending

Model familyThrough-cycle DCF / normalized earnings

OCF − cash capex / diluted share7.05 USD

Price / reported cash proxy63.04×

Required adjustment tests

cycle
Use through-cycle demand, margins and utilization rather than a peak or trough year.
capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2024-10-28 → 2025-10-26Filed: 2025-12-12Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	28,368,000,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	8,289,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	6,998,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	7,958,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	2,260,000,000	USD	us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment ↗
Share-based compensation	668,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	808,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	7,241,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	0	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	6,455,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)5,698,000,000 USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Mid-cycle earnings and DCF, separating service durability from equipment cyclicality.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

Loading dated research…

Follow this thesis

RSS · AMAT

RSS, not email: your reader stores subscriptions. Copying a link does not subscribe you automatically. No account or email is collected.

FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q3 FY2026 · Published 2026-08-13 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: Revenue was $9.12bn, up 25%; company-reported free cash flow grew 14%.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: More materials steps and advanced packaging may expand spend per chip even when wafer growth slows.
03 / What to measure next: Foundry/DRAM mix, services, gross margin, cash conversion and customer capex excluding acquisition effects.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if growth depends on a short capacity surge rather than intensity/share gains, or cash conversion keeps weakening.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Mid-cycle earnings and DCF, separating service durability from equipment cyclicality.
06 / Still missing: Missing: multi-cycle cash conversion and quantified process-intensity gains.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Materials engineering and advanced packaging

AI scaling increasingly depends on materials engineering, HBM and heterogeneous integration.

Principal risk

China exposure, WFE cycles and shifts between process steps.

What the daily radar monitors

01Packaging revenuePRIMARY KPI

02HBM exposureTREND + GUIDANCE

03Services growthTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.