07 / 26 · Semicap + memory

TSM

TSMC

7%target weight

Latest available close$445.120.2% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

ADR / FX conversion required

Model familyThrough-cycle DCF / normalized earnings

OCF − cash capex / diluted share33.56 TWD

Price / reported cash proxyNot comparable across reporting/listed-share currency

Required adjustment tests

cycle
Use through-cycle demand, margins and utilization rather than a peak or trough year.
capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.
adr fx
Verify ADR ratio, reporting-to-listed-share conversion and same-date FX.
concentration
Stress customer concentration, insourcing and contract cancellation.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2024-01-01 → 2024-12-31Filed: 2025-04-17Reporting currency: TWDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction · Annual base over 450 days old

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	2,894,307,700,000	TWD	ifrs-full:Revenue ↗
Operating income	1,322,053,000,000	TWD	ifrs-full:ProfitLossFromOperatingActivities ↗
Net income	1,157,523,900,000	TWD	ifrs-full:ProfitLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	1,826,177,100,000	TWD	ifrs-full:CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	956,006,500,000	TWD	ifrs-full:PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities ↗
Share-based compensation	—	—	Missing / manual review
Weighted diluted shares	25,929,700,000	shares	ifrs-full:AdjustedWeightedAverageShares ↗
Cash and equivalents	2,127,627,000,000	TWD	ifrs-full:CashAndCashEquivalents ↗
Current long-term debt	59,857,900,000	TWD	ifrs-full:CurrentPortionOfLongtermBorrowings ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	—	—	Missing / manual review

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)870,170,600,000 TWDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Cycle-aware DCF in reporting currency, then consistent ADR/FX conversion; no arbitrary catastrophe probability.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q2 2026 · Published 2026-07-16 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: US-dollar revenue was $40.20bn; gross margin 67.7%; quarterly EPS was US$4.31 per ADR.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: Leading-node yield and packaging can capture value across competing chip designers; geographic disruption remains a separate tail risk.
03 / What to measure next: Node mix, utilization, packaging capacity, overseas-fab margin impact, capex and monthly sales with seasonal comparisons.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess after sustained yield/ramp failure or lower utilization with rising capital intensity; analyze disruption separately.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Cycle-aware DCF in reporting currency, then consistent ADR/FX conversion; no arbitrary catastrophe probability.
06 / Still missing: Missing: capacity/yield scenarios, FX bridge and explicit supply-disruption stress.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Leading-edge foundry bottleneck

Most AI-compute winners depend on TSMC leading-edge processes and advanced packaging.

Principal risk

Taiwan geopolitics, capex cycles and energy or water constraints.

What the daily radar monitors

01N2 yieldPRIMARY KPI

02CoWoS capacityTREND + GUIDANCE

03HPC revenue mixTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.