08 / 26 · Semicap + memory

ASML

5%target weight

Latest available close$1,717.76-1.9% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

ADR / FX conversion required

Model familySum-of-parts segment DCF

OCF − cash capex / diluted share28.5 EUR

Price / reported cash proxyNot comparable across reporting/listed-share currency

Required adjustment tests

cycle
Use through-cycle demand, margins and utilization rather than a peak or trough year.
adr fx
Verify ADR ratio, reporting-to-listed-share conversion and same-date FX.
contract quality
Convert backlog/RPO into dated probability-weighted cash; never count face value as equity.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2025-01-01 → 2025-12-31Filed: 2026-02-25Reporting currency: EURLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	32,667,300,000	EUR	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	11,301,400,000	EUR	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	9,609,400,000	EUR	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	12,658,500,000	EUR	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	1,573,600,000	EUR	us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment ↗
Share-based compensation	202,300,000	EUR	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	388,900,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	12,916,000,000	EUR	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	1,681,900,000	EUR	us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	2,709,000,000	EUR	us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)11,084,900,000 EURNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

EUR DCF separating systems and service; consistent listed-share currency conversion.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q2 2026 · Published 2026-07-15 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: Sales were €9.326bn; installed-base management sales €2.762bn; gross margin 54%.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: More lithography intensity and installed-base service may stabilize economics beyond quarterly equipment bookings.
03 / What to measure next: EUV/High-NA adoption, customer acceptance, service sales, gross margin and shipment restrictions.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if customers defer adoption because cost per good wafer fails to improve, or restrictions materially impair demand.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: EUR DCF separating systems and service; consistent listed-share currency conversion.
06 / Still missing: Missing: adoption economics and export-restriction scenarios; backlog is not guaranteed revenue.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

EUV lithography bottleneck

ASML controls the most complex tool required for advanced chips and monetizes a growing installed base.

Principal risk

Export restrictions, customer capex cycles and High-NA execution.

What the daily radar monitors

01BookingsPRIMARY KPI

02High-NA milestonesTREND + GUIDANCE

03China restrictionsTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.