16 / 26 · Compute

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

2%target weight

Latest available close$605.531.9% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Reported proxy available · normalization pending

Model familySum-of-parts segment DCF

OCF − cash capex / diluted share4.12 USD

Price / reported cash proxy135.99×

Required adjustment tests

cycle
Use through-cycle demand, margins and utilization rather than a peak or trough year.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.
concentration
Stress customer concentration, insourcing and contract cancellation.
capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2024-12-29 → 2025-12-27Filed: 2026-02-04Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	34,639,000,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	3,694,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	4,335,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	7,709,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	974,000,000	USD	us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment ↗
Share-based compensation	1,638,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	1,636,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	5,539,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	874,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	2,348,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)6,735,000,000 USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Segment DCF with GPU share/margin scenarios and separate CPU economics.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q2 2026 · Published 2026-08-04 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: Data Center revenue was $6.7bn, up 107% year over year and 58% of company revenue.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: A second accelerator supplier creates value only if production adoption and software economics translate into durable profit.
03 / What to measure next: Separate CPU and accelerator growth; customer production usage, gross profit, inventory and software adoption.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if announced deployments fail to scale or price discounts prevent accelerator growth from earning an adequate return.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Segment DCF with GPU share/margin scenarios and separate CPU economics.
06 / Still missing: Missing: accelerator-only cash economics; aggregate Data Center growth includes CPUs.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Second-source accelerators and CPUs

AMD provides an alternative to GPU concentration and upside in inference, CPUs and heterogeneous compute.

Principal risk

Software gap, pricing pressure and slow customer qualification.

What the daily radar monitors

01Instinct revenuePRIMARY KPI

02ROCm adoptionTREND + GUIDANCE

03Server CPU shareTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.