04 / 26 · Compute

NVDA

NVIDIA

8%target weight

Latest available close$228.521% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Special model required

Model familyReverse DCF with explicit margin fade

OCF − cash capex / diluted shareNo valid reported proxy

Price / reported cash proxy—

Required adjustment tests

cycle
Use through-cycle demand, margins and utilization rather than a peak or trough year.
working capital
Normalize working-capital timing; customer advances are not recurring profit.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.
concentration
Stress customer concentration, insourcing and contract cancellation.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2025-01-27 → 2026-01-25Filed: 2026-02-25Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	215,938,000,000	USD	us-gaap:Revenues ↗
Operating income	130,387,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	120,067,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	102,718,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	—	—	Missing / manual review
Share-based compensation	6,386,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	24,514,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	10,605,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	999,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	7,469,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)— USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Reverse DCF with margin fade, working capital and dilution; no permanent peak-margin assumption.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q2 FY2027 · Published 2026-08-26 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: Revenue was $96.2bn; Data Center revenue $89.0bn; GAAP gross margin 75.0%.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: System/software integration may preserve economic rents as inference expands; technical leadership alone does not justify any entry price.
03 / What to measure next: Gross margin, receivables relative to sales, inventory commitments, customer concentration and real deployment economics.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if margins erode while receivables/inventory outgrow sales, or customers demonstrate superior ASIC economics at scale.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Reverse DCF with margin fade, working capital and dilution; no permanent peak-margin assumption.
06 / Still missing: Missing: current price-implied cash growth versus an independently built demand scenario.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Accelerated-compute platform

NVIDIA sells an integrated GPU, networking and software platform that sets the pace of frontier training.

Principal risk

Custom accelerators, export controls, customer concentration and exceptional expectations.

What the daily radar monitors

01Data Center revenuePRIMARY KPI

02System supply rampTREND + GUIDANCE

03Software monetizationTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.