06 / 26 · Compute

AVGO

Broadcom

7%target weight

Latest available close$357.310.7% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Reported proxy available · normalization pending

Model familySum-of-parts segment DCF

OCF − cash capex / diluted share5.55 USD

Price / reported cash proxy64.48×

Required adjustment tests

acquisitions
Build a pro-forma organic base and include the full capital paid for acquisitions.
net debt
Reconcile debt, cash, preferred claims and acquisition funding exactly once.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.
concentration
Stress customer concentration, insourcing and contract cancellation.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2024-11-04 → 2025-11-02Filed: 2025-12-18Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	63,887,000,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	25,484,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	23,126,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ProfitLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	27,537,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	623,000,000	USD	us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment ↗
Share-based compensation	7,568,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	4,853,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	16,178,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	3,152,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	—	—	Missing / manual review

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)26,914,000,000 USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Separate semiconductor and software cash flows; deduct debt and account for share compensation.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q3 FY2026 · Published 2026-09-02 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7bn; company free cash flow was $13.7bn, or 46% of revenue.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: Custom accelerators and networking may gain wallet share even as GPU demand grows; customer bargaining power can absorb that gain.
03 / What to measure next: AI sales converted to cash, customer concentration, software renewals and net debt.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if cash margins fall as AI sales rise, or a major design program is cancelled or insourced.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Separate semiconductor and software cash flows; deduct debt and account for share compensation.
06 / Still missing: Missing: program-level economics and a price-implied customer-retention scenario.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Custom accelerators and networking

Broadcom captures hyperscaler ASIC and network-fabric economics across multiple model winners.

Principal risk

Hyperscaler concentration, ASIC cyclicality and integration risk.

What the daily radar monitors

01AI semiconductor revenuePRIMARY KPI

02Design winsTREND + GUIDANCE

03Customer concentrationTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.