25 / 26 · Semicap + memory

LRCX

Lam Research

1%target weight

Latest available close$301.11-2.7% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Special model required

Model familyThrough-cycle DCF / normalized earnings

OCF − cash capex / diluted shareNo valid reported proxy

Price / reported cash proxy—

Required adjustment tests

cycle
Use through-cycle demand, margins and utilization rather than a peak or trough year.
capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2025-06-30 → 2026-06-28Filed: 2026-08-07Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	23,232,690,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	8,199,795,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	7,265,396,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	5,857,657,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	—	—	Missing / manual review
Share-based compensation	386,381,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	1,261,102,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	5,579,171,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	147,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	3,721,914,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)— USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Mid-cycle DCF with a memory downcycle and separate services assumptions.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Quarter ended 2026-06-28 · Published 2026-07-29 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: Quarterly revenue was $6.722bn; non-GAAP operating margin was 38.4%.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: More etch/deposition steps may increase value per wafer, but memory spending remains cyclical.
03 / What to measure next: DRAM/NAND/foundry mix, process intensity, service revenue, margins and customer acceptance timing.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if node transitions fail to increase tool intensity or a memory downturn exposes excess capacity.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Mid-cycle DCF with a memory downcycle and separate services assumptions.
06 / Still missing: Missing: multi-cycle earnings normalization and comparable process-step intensity data.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Etch, deposition and advanced packaging

3D memory and advanced logic require more etch and deposition steps per wafer.

Principal risk

Memory cycles, China controls and equipment concentration.

What the daily radar monitors

01Memory WFEPRIMARY KPI

02Packaging exposureTREND + GUIDANCE

03Installed baseTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.