21 / 26 · Semicap + memory

MU

Micron Technology

1.5%target weight

Latest available close$953.19-3.6% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Reported proxy available · normalization pending

Model familyThrough-cycle DCF / normalized earnings

OCF − cash capex / diluted share1.48 USD

Price / reported cash proxy685.12×

Required adjustment tests

cycle
Use through-cycle demand, margins and utilization rather than a peak or trough year.
capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.
working capital
Normalize working-capital timing; customer advances are not recurring profit.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2024-08-30 → 2025-08-28Filed: 2025-10-03Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	37,378,000,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	9,770,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	8,539,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	17,525,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	15,857,000,000	USD	us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment ↗
Share-based compensation	972,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	1,125,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	9,642,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	—	—	Missing / manual review
Noncurrent long-term debt	11,533,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebt ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)1,668,000,000 USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Through-cycle DCF and normalized earnings, not a low P/E computed from peak EPS.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q3 FY2026 · Published 2026-06-24 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: Revenue was $41.46bn versus $9.30bn a year earlier; the company reported $18.3bn adjusted free cash flow.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: HBM mix and supply discipline could improve through-cycle returns; extrapolating a memory boom is the central valuation trap.
03 / What to measure next: HBM contract economics, bit supply, pricing, inventory, capex and cash margins across cycles.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if supply expands faster than demand while pricing and inventory turn adverse; test a downcycle explicitly.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Through-cycle DCF and normalized earnings, not a low P/E computed from peak EPS.
06 / Still missing: Missing: filing reconciliation of exceptional results, supply assumptions and contract protections.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

HBM and advanced memory

Memory bandwidth is becoming an AI-system constraint and HBM raises product value.

Principal risk

Memory cyclicality, yield ramps and aggressive capacity response.

What the daily radar monitors

01HBM sold-out horizonPRIMARY KPI

02DRAM supplyTREND + GUIDANCE

03Gross marginTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.