03 / 26 · Models + cloud

AMZN

Amazon

8%target weight

Latest available close$258.58-0.4% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Special model required

Model familySum-of-parts segment DCF

OCF − cash capex / diluted shareNo valid reported proxy

Price / reported cash proxy—

Required adjustment tests

capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.
leases
Reconcile cash capex, finance leases and other capacity commitments.
working capital
Normalize working-capital timing; customer advances are not recurring profit.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2025-01-01 → 2025-12-31Filed: 2026-02-06Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	716,924,000,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	79,975,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	77,670,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	139,514,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	—	—	Missing / manual review
Share-based compensation	19,467,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	10,827,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	86,810,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	2,748,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	65,648,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)— USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Sum of segment DCFs; reconcile leases and maintenance versus growth investment.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q2 2026 / FCF TTM · Published 2026-07-30 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: AWS sales grew 37%; trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was negative $7.6bn under the company’s definition.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: Custom silicon and AWS utilization could improve investment returns; retail and advertising must be valued separately.
03 / What to measure next: AWS operating margin, capex/lease commitments, retail margins and rolling cash flow; exclude non-operating investment gains.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if capacity spending keeps outrunning cash generation without evidence of better utilization or unit returns.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Sum of segment DCFs; reconcile leases and maintenance versus growth investment.
06 / Still missing: Missing: defensible capex allocation and a normalized per-share cash-flow forecast.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

AWS, custom silicon and AI platform

AWS monetizes multi-model demand while Trainium and Inferentia reduce dependence on one GPU supplier.

Principal risk

Competition, underutilized custom silicon and weak capex returns.

What the daily radar monitors

01AWS growthPRIMARY KPI

02Trainium adoptionTREND + GUIDANCE

03Bedrock usageTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.