01 / 26 · Models + cloud

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10%target weight

Latest available close$353.780.3% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Reported proxy available · normalization pending

Model familySum-of-parts segment DCF

OCF − cash capex / diluted share5.99 USD

Price / reported cash proxy58.35×

Required adjustment tests

capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.
nonoperating
Remove investment revaluations, disposal gains and other non-operating items.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2025-01-01 → 2025-12-31Filed: 2026-02-05Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	402,836,000,000	USD	us-gaap:Revenues ↗
Operating income	129,039,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	132,170,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	164,713,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	91,447,000,000	USD	us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment ↗
Share-based compensation	24,953,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	12,230,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	30,708,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	1,996,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	46,547,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)73,266,000,000 USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Segment DCF; separate investment assets and their gains. Never annualize this quarter’s headline EPS.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q2 2026 · Published 2026-07-22 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: Cloud revenue grew 82%; other income included a $98.0bn net gain, mainly unrealized equity gains.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: AI can expand Search and Cloud cash earnings, but investment revaluations must not masquerade as recurring operating growth.
03 / What to measure next: Search revenue and traffic-acquisition costs; Cloud operating profit; capex, depreciation and diluted shares at the next report.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if Search economics deteriorate while AI cost rises, or Cloud growth fails to improve normalized cash earnings per share.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Segment DCF; separate investment assets and their gains. Never annualize this quarter’s headline EPS.
06 / Still missing: Missing: normalized earnings bridge, capex replacement needs and price-implied growth.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Frontier models and global distribution

Gemini, TPUs, Cloud and billions of consumer touchpoints give Alphabet a complete path from model research to distribution.

Principal risk

AI may cannibalize search economics while capex and regulatory pressure rise.

What the daily radar monitors

01Gemini usagePRIMARY KPI

02Cloud AI backlogTREND + GUIDANCE

03Search monetizationTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.