02 / 26 · Models + cloud

MSFT

Microsoft

9%target weight

Latest available close$543.450.4% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Reported proxy available · normalization pending

Model familySum-of-parts segment DCF

OCF − cash capex / diluted share8.99 USD

Price / reported cash proxy54.94×

Required adjustment tests

capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.
leases
Reconcile cash capex, finance leases and other capacity commitments.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.
nonoperating
Remove investment revaluations, disposal gains and other non-operating items.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2025-07-01 → 2026-06-30Filed: 2026-07-29Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	331,839,000,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	155,237,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	133,749,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	182,935,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	115,948,000,000	USD	us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment ↗
Share-based compensation	12,405,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	7,453,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	20,935,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	9,227,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent ↗
Noncurrent long-term debt	31,067,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)66,987,000,000 USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

DCF with cash capex, finance leases and realistic hardware replacement; normalize investment gains separately.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q4 FY2026 · Published 2026-07-29 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: Quarterly capex including leases was $41bn; cash property/equipment spending was $35.8bn. Commercial RPO was $678bn.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: The edge must come from paid AI adoption exceeding replacement-compute costs, not from counting backlog as cash.
03 / What to measure next: Azure growth, cloud margin, RPO concentration/duration, cash capex versus leases and cash earnings per diluted share.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if cloud margins and cash conversion weaken across two comparable reports despite strong bookings.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: DCF with cash capex, finance leases and realistic hardware replacement; normalize investment gains separately.
06 / Still missing: Missing: AI-cohort returns and independent customer-credit assumptions.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Enterprise distribution, cloud and model economics

Azure and Microsoft 365 are a short path from frontier intelligence to paid enterprise workflows.

Principal risk

Model-partner dependency, power constraints and uncertain returns on AI capex.

What the daily radar monitors

01Azure AI growthPRIMARY KPI

02Copilot retentionTREND + GUIDANCE

03Capex conversionTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.