05 / 26 · Models + cloud

META

Meta Platforms

7%target weight

Latest available close$762.502.6% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Reported proxy available · normalization pending

Model familySum-of-parts segment DCF

OCF − cash capex / diluted share17.91 USD

Price / reported cash proxy37.16×

Required adjustment tests

capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.
nonoperating
Remove investment revaluations, disposal gains and other non-operating items.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2025-01-01 → 2025-12-31Filed: 2026-01-29Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	200,966,000,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	83,276,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	60,458,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	115,800,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	69,691,000,000	USD	us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment ↗
Share-based compensation	20,427,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	2,574,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	35,873,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	—	—	Missing / manual review
Noncurrent long-term debt	58,744,000,000	USD	us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent ↗

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)46,109,000,000 USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

DCF separating core advertising, infrastructure replacement and speculative projects.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

Q2 2026 · Published 2026-07-29 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: Revenue grew 28%; operating margin was 31% versus 43%; quarterly free cash flow was $0.784bn.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: AI recommendation and ad conversion can monetize before AGI, but incremental gross profit must pay for infrastructure.
03 / What to measure next: Ad price/impressions, expenses excluding clearly identified one-offs, capex, depreciation and cash flow.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess if recurring cost growth exceeds ad gross-profit growth for two comparable reports after one-off adjustments.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: DCF separating core advertising, infrastructure replacement and speculative projects.
06 / Still missing: Missing: one-off cost bridge and incremental AI investment returns; one quarter cannot establish a trend.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Frontier models, distribution and monetization

Meta can convert open-model leadership into better recommendations, advertising, creator tools and new interfaces.

Principal risk

Capex without direct monetization, regulation and open models that fail to capture value.

What the daily radar monitors

01Ad ranking upliftPRIMARY KPI

02Llama adoptionTREND + GUIDANCE

03AI capex intensityTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.