11 / 26 · Models + cloud

ORCL

Oracle

3%target weight

Latest available close$143.204.2% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Negative reported proxy · multi-stage model

Model familyContract and funding-aware DCF

OCF − cash capex / diluted shareNo valid reported proxy

Price / reported cash proxy—

Required adjustment tests

contract quality
Convert backlog/RPO into dated probability-weighted cash; never count face value as equity.
leases
Reconcile cash capex, finance leases and other capacity commitments.
net debt
Reconcile debt, cash, preferred claims and acquisition funding exactly once.
capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.

Reported financial base

Annual period: 2025-06-01 → 2026-05-31Filed: 2026-06-22Reporting currency: USDLast source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	67,357,000,000	USD	us-gaap:RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax ↗
Operating income	20,606,000,000	USD	us-gaap:OperatingIncomeLoss ↗
Net income	17,087,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetIncomeLoss ↗
Operating cash flow	31,977,000,000	USD	us-gaap:NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities ↗
Cash capital expenditure	55,663,000,000	USD	us-gaap:PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment ↗
Share-based compensation	4,811,000,000	USD	us-gaap:ShareBasedCompensation ↗
Weighted diluted shares	2,914,000,000	shares	us-gaap:WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding ↗
Cash and equivalents	31,289,000,000	USD	us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue ↗
Current long-term debt	—	—	Missing / manual review
Noncurrent long-term debt	—	—	Missing / manual review

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)-23,686,000,000 USDNormalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Contract-aware DCF with funding scenarios; RPO cannot be added to equity value at face value.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Hypothesis · not a trading signal

FY2026 / Q4-end RPO · Published 2026-06-10 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: RPO reached $638bn; full-year free cash flow was negative $23.7bn. Customer-prepaid/provided hardware in large AI contracts totaled $75bn.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: Customer funding may reduce financing pressure, but backlog value depends on payment, capacity delivery and residual obligations.
03 / What to measure next: RPO maturity/counterparties, cash receipts, customer hardware, debt, leases and OCI operating economics.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Reassess after material deferrals, adverse contract revisions or financing needs that dilute per-share value.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Contract-aware DCF with funding scenarios; RPO cannot be added to equity value at face value.
06 / Still missing: Missing: contract-level cash schedules and credit exposure, not just aggregate RPO.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

AI cloud capacity, data and enterprise reach

OCI combines large GPU clusters with databases that already host critical enterprise workloads.

Principal risk

Capex funding, customer concentration and execution at scale.

What the daily radar monitors

01OCI backlogPRIMARY KPI

02Capacity utilizationTREND + GUIDANCE

03FCF after capexTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.