26 / 26 · Models + cloud

SPCX

SpaceX

1%target weight

Latest available close$156.54-4.2% · vs previous close

DAILY CLOSE · USD2026-10-13Yahoo Finance ↗

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Explore a date

Daily candles, not a live feed. Price series is split-adjusted; total-return mode uses provider-adjusted prices including distributions. The chart does not predict returns.

A great business. At what price?

Test earnings growth against a change in valuation. All multiples below are your assumptions — not current company fundamentals.

Illustrative price CAGR—

CAGR = (1 + EPS growth) × (exit P/E ÷ entry P/E)^(1/years) − 1. Excludes dividends, dilution beyond EPS, taxes and fees. Not a price target. Not suitable for gold, bonds or companies with negative earnings.

RESEARCH ENGINE / 1.2

What must this price deliver?

Inspect reported numbers, test your assumptions and follow the next filing. A calculation is not an approved investment case.

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NORMALIZATION / v1.0.0

Normalization workpaper

A company-specific protocol, not an approved normalized cash flow.

Operating statements not normalized

Model familyIPO filings / sum-of-parts scenario model

OCF − cash capex / diluted shareNo valid reported proxy

Price / reported cash proxy—

Required adjustment tests

entity scope
Verify legal entity, segment perimeter, shareholder rights, lock-up and fully diluted share count.
capex split
Separate maintenance/replacement capex from expansion capex; do not assume either number.
net debt
Reconcile debt, cash, preferred claims and acquisition funding exactly once.
sbc
Measure dilution and treat share compensation consistently with per-share cash.

Reported financial base

Annual period: Missing / manual reviewFiled: —Reporting currency: —Last source retrieval: 2026-09-18T22:00:49.022Z

Unreviewed extraction

Reported financial base
Metric	Value	Unit	Source
Revenue	—	—	Missing / manual review
Operating income	—	—	Missing / manual review
Net income	—	—	Missing / manual review
Operating cash flow	—	—	Missing / manual review
Cash capital expenditure	—	—	Missing / manual review
Share-based compensation	—	—	Missing / manual review
Weighted diluted shares	—	—	Missing / manual review
Cash and equivalents	—	—	Missing / manual review
Current long-term debt	—	—	Missing / manual review
Noncurrent long-term debt	—	—	Missing / manual review

OCF − cash capex (not normalized)— Normalized owner cash: not approved

Annual figures, not trailing twelve months. No automatic currency/ADR conversion. Cash proxy excludes review of leases, debt service, SBC, acquisitions and cycle. Missing values are not zero.

Company-specific method

Segment/scenario valuation after filings review. Do not invent EPS or splice the former ETF’s SPCX price history.

Your scenario · not our forecast

Equity-per-share DCF: do not subtract net debt again. Future dilution must already be included in cash-per-share growth. This does not measure analyst consensus. Replacement capex and sustainable terminal cash still require review.

What changed?

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Follow this thesis

RSS · SPCX

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FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH · 2026-09-06

The investment case, under examination.

A dated research map, not completed valuations. The 25-company portfolio baseline is unchanged; IBM is monitored at 0% outside it. Public facts do not establish an edge: every hypothesis still needs normalized financials, price-implied expectations and independent forward tests.

Identity only · financial review incomplete

IPO / instrument identity only · Published 2026-06-15 · Source checked 2026-09-06

01 / What the issuer reported: The issuer states that Class A shares began trading under SPCX on June 12, 2026. This source confirms identity, not operating valuation.
02 / Our hypothesis — not established alpha: Space/AI optionality is investable only when the listed entity’s ownership, operating cash flows and funding obligations are understood.
03 / What to measure next: Read the prospectus and periodic filing: segment cash flow, satellite replacement, related parties, dilution and shareholder rights.
04 / What would challenge the thesis: Do not advance the valuation if entity scope or financial reconciliation is unclear; reject a thesis supported only by a space-compute narrative.
05 / Appropriate valuation method: Segment/scenario valuation after filings review. Do not invent EPS or splice the former ETF’s SPCX price history.
06 / Still missing: Financial coverage incomplete: identity verified, operating statements and price-implied expectations not reviewed in this dossier.

No measured consensus gap or approved price target. A familiar good business can still be an expensive stock.

Read the primary source ↗

Issuer-reported figures, not an independent accounting audit. Review after the next report or material filing. These review triggers are proposed, not automatic sell rules. Weights and paper mandates are unchanged.

Why this position exists

Space-compute optionality

A small optional position in global connectivity, launch economics and possible orbital compute.

Principal risk

Post-IPO valuation risk, high volatility, future lock-up supply and governance.

What the daily radar monitors

01Public-market valuationPRIMARY KPI

02Starlink cash flowTREND + GUIDANCE

03Lock-up releasesTHESIS TRIGGER

Decision rule

A headline never changes a weight by itself. The system verifies the primary source, tests the KPI trend and creates a proposal for the investment committee.