P05.19 / SYNTHESIS GATE ACTIVE · v1.0.0
Five companies. Zero forced verdicts.
Every company is mapped to exact securities, venues and currencies, then tested through a receipt-bound issuer-synthesis gate. Missing evidence remains visible and automated; it is never converted into valuation, weight or trade.
RESEARCH DOSSIERS / NOT INVESTMENT ADVICECOMPARATIVE TRIAGE / v0.2
Five different economic problems
This is triage, not a ranking. A persuasive AI narrative and attractive shareholder economics are separate propositions.
- observable signal
- Strongest current self-funding profile
- blocking tension
- AI-specific revenue remains only partially disclosed.
- observable signal
- Largest visible cloud/AI capex acceleration
- blocking tension
- Company-defined free cash flow turned materially negative.
- observable signal
- Most explicit AI-revenue taxonomy in the group
- blocking tension
- Legacy contraction, impairments and weak cash conversion remain.
- observable signal
- Clearest domestic-supply-chain bottleneck
- blocking tension
- Capital intensity dominates near-term shareholder cash economics.
- observable signal
- Physical data-center demand and contracted capacity
- blocking tension
- Development capex, leverage, customer concentration and VIE claims complicate the bridge.
Compare all · 5
P05.3 / DILUTION POLICY · v0.1.0
A frozen algorithm before a single ranking.
Five companies now have dated legal anchors. That still does not create five comparable valuations. This control plane decides which shares enter basic market cap, which belong only in a conversion scenario, and which must stay outside the number.
DENOMINATOR STACK
Four layers. Four different jobs.
Legal issued / outstanding
Disclosure control and legal share identity.
Never substitute it for economic shares when treasury, cancellation or award reserves are material.Economic common base
Research market-cap base after evidenced cancellations, treasury and pre-issued award reserves.
Never subtract a bucket twice or infer an undisclosed adjustment.Expected diluted scenario
Probability-weighted awards and in-the-money conversion cases once terms and offsets are date-matched.
GAAP quarterly weighted averages and maximum issuance ceilings are not spot expected shares.Maximum disclosed ceiling
Adverse dilution stress and falsification of valuation resilience.
Never publish it as the base-case denominator.DECISION GATE
Company decision matrix
| company | research base | disclosed scenario endpoint | uplift | freshness | valuation gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIAlibaba Group Holding Limited | 2,485,623,614.75legal issued ads equivalent | 2,602,045,850.75maximum disclosed delivery ceiling | +4.684% | 4 days old | BLOCKED |
| TCEHYTencent Holdings Limited | 9,095,301,877economic post cancellation | 9,141,499,929post cancellation plus option ceiling | +0.508% | 0 days old | BLOCKED |
| BIDUBaidu, Inc. | 339,186,531.25dated legal total divided by ads ratio | 344,375,000q2 diluted weighted average | +1.53% | 52 days old | BLOCKED |
| SMICSemiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation | 8,561,151,853hk plus star legal issued | 8,571,708,119legal plus disclosed award ceiling | +0.123% | 4 days old | BLOCKED |
| GDSGDS Holdings Limited | 194,287,818.875economic common after award reserve | 259,473,664.625q2 gaap diluted weighted average | +33.551% | 96 days old | BLOCKED |
CN-ALI · ADS-equivalent
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Instrument treatment
August placing710,000,000 in baseCompleted and already included in issued shares.
Convertible notes692,857,552 stress onlyAdd shares only in a conversion scenario and remove the converted claim from funded obligations.
Options and granted RSUs238,520,336 stress onlyMaximum delivery is not expected vesting and is not a GAAP diluted spot count.
CN-TCEHY · ordinary shares
Tencent Holdings Limited
Instrument treatment
Shares pending cancellation7,852,000 subtract economicRemain legally issued at the snapshot, but are removed from the economic post-cancellation base.
Option new-share ceiling46,198,052 stress onlyA disclosed issuance ceiling, not a treasury-stock-method result.
Unused scheme capacity244,011,268 exclude authorizationAuthorization room is neither an outstanding award nor expected dilution.
CN-BIDU · ADS-equivalent
Baidu, Inc.
Instrument treatment
Class A + Class B2,713,492,250 in baseBoth classes are economically pari passu; the 8:1 ADS translation is an economic equivalent, not direct deliverability of Class B into ADSs.
Reserved / expected cancellation16,863,158 already excludedThe circular excludes this mixed bucket from issued and outstanding shares; it is not added again.
Q2 diluted-average gap41,507,750 sensitivity onlyQuarterly EPS arithmetic is compared as a sensitivity, never silently substituted for the July legal count.
CN-SMIC · issuer-wide shares
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation
Instrument treatment
Hong Kong shares6,014,407,231 in baseIncluded at the dated HKEX legal count.
STAR A shares2,546,744,622 in base separate priceIncluded in issuer-wide shares, but requires its own venue price and FX conversion.
Unvested awards10,556,266 stress onlyA delivery ceiling; outstanding option treatment still requires trustee-level reconciliation.
CN-GDS · ADS-equivalent
GDS Holdings Limited
Instrument treatment
Depositary award reserve48,718,352 subtract economicAlready-issued shares held for future awards are removed from current economic common, then future delivery is modeled separately.
Series A + Series B preferred77,804,444 if converted scenarioAdd only in a conversion scenario and remove the corresponding preferred claim; conversion ratios are dated.
Borrowed delta shares48,000,000 contingent no double countExcluded from the company outstanding count; never add separately when the related note conversion is already modeled.
P05.4 / CAP-TABLE CONTROL · v0.1.0
The disclosure arrived. The missing number did not.
We audited the post-anchor evidence cadence for Baidu and GDS and built an instrument-level expected-dilution bridge for all five companies. The result is deliberately uncomfortable: fresher documents do not automatically produce a fresh full share count.
PUBLICATION ≠ COUNT DATE
Evidence cadence ledger
| company | legal anchor | latest usable evidence | monitoring route | state |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIAlibaba Group Holding Limited | 2026-08-314 days @ target | 2026-08-31The August monthly return includes the completed 710m-share placing in the issued base. | hkex monthly returnSeptember monthly return; expected after month-end under the regular HKEX cadence. | PASS |
| TCEHYTencent Holdings Limited | 2026-09-040 days @ target | 2026-09-04The next-day return bridges issuance and 7.852m shares pending cancellation to the market date. | hkex next day returnNext monthly or next-day return after a reportable capital movement. | PASS |
| BIDUBaidu, Inc. | 2026-07-1452 days @ target | 2026-08-26The EGM materials assumed 2.713492250bn shares remained unchanged through 26 August; the passed resolutions do not publish a new target-date cap table. Dual-primary status became effective on 1 September. | dual primary monthly returnFirst post-conversion monthly return. Early October is an inferred monitoring window, not a company-announced date. | GAP |
| SMICSemiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation | 2026-08-314 days @ target | 2026-08-31The August return supplies issuer-wide HK and STAR issued shares, but not one executable cross-venue price. | hkex monthly returnSeptember monthly return plus venue-specific HK and STAR quotes and FX. | PASS |
| GDSGDS Holdings Limited | 2026-05-3196 days @ target | 2026-06-30The interim report released on 4 September confirms 43.590m Class B shares at 30 June, but does not disclose a complete Class A plus Class B target-date count. | secondary listing periodic filingsA dated full cap table in a subsequent SEC/HKEX filing or direct issuer confirmation; no exact publication date is currently disclosed. | GAP |
CONTROL PLANE
Four anti-self-deception controls
- 01
A publication date is not a share-count date. The GDS report released on 4 September carries a 30 June partial count.
- 02
Authorization is not issuance. Plan limits and S-8 registrations stay outside expected dilution until grants, vesting and settlement are evidenced.
- 03
A conversion scenario adds shares and removes the same instrument claim from enterprise value in one simultaneous bridge.
- 04
Missing stays missing. No inferred share count, probability, price, ranking, weight or trade is published as fact.
BASIC → EXPECTED → STRESS
Expected-dilution workbench
Basic is observed. Expected must be earned. Stress is not a forecast.
CN-ALI · ADS-equivalent
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Inputs still missing
- Instrument-by-instrument conversion prices and converted-claim offsets.
- Award vesting schedule, forfeiture history and settlement source.
- A licensed, date-matched ADS quote.
CN-TCEHY · ordinary shares
Tencent Holdings Limited
Inputs still missing
- Grant-level option strikes and remaining lives.
- Expected vesting and forfeiture by award cohort.
- Treasury-share and repurchase settlement policy.
CN-BIDU · ADS-equivalent
Baidu, Inc.
Inputs still missing
- First date-matched monthly share return after primary conversion.
- Outstanding grants, vesting cohorts and shares-versus-cash settlement.
- Instrument-level reconciliation of the 16.863m mixed reserved/cancellation bucket.
CN-SMIC · issuer-wide shares
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation
Inputs still missing
- Outstanding options, strikes and trustee-held share reconciliation.
- Expected vesting of the 10.556m disclosed award ceiling.
- Separate HK and STAR prices with a date-matched FX bridge.
CN-GDS · ADS-equivalent
GDS Holdings Limited
Inputs still missing
- A complete date-matched Class A plus Class B legal count.
- Award grants, vesting, forfeitures and use of already-issued depositary reserves.
- Conversion probability and simultaneous removal of notes/preferred claims from EV.
P05.5 / INSTRUMENT LEDGER · v0.1.0
A ceiling is not a forecast. An instrument is not a share.
We traced awards, options, convertibles, preferred shares, delivery reserves and authorization capacity across all five issuers. The ledger now shows what may dilute, what only belongs in stress, what offsets issuance and what must stay excluded.
CLASSIFY BEFORE SUMMING
Five rules before arithmetic
- 01
Gross instrument inventory is evidence, not expected dilution.
- 02
Treasury, trustee and already-issued reserve shares offset delivery before new shares are added.
- 03
Options require price, strike, remaining life, vesting and net-settlement treatment.
- 04
Conversion adds shares and removes the same debt or preferred claim from enterprise value.
- 05
Authorization capacity is excluded until a dated grant creates an instrument.
GROSS ≠ EXPECTED
Instrument inventory control matrix
| company | cohorts | candidate | roll-forward state | expected diluted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALIAlibaba Group Holding Limited | 5 | 1 | partial latest ceiling supersedes older plan detail | NOT APPROVED |
| TCEHYTencent Holdings Limited | 7 | 4 | not reconciled after august grants | NOT APPROVED |
| BIDUBaidu, Inc. | 5 | 2 | stale year end inventory requires 2026 bridge | NOT APPROVED |
| SMICSemiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation | 4 | 2 | august ceiling requires trustee reconciliation | NOT APPROVED |
| GDSGDS Holdings Limited | 9 | 1 | dated inventory complete but base stale | NOT APPROVED |
BASE → COHORTS → STRESS
Cohort workbench
CN-ALI · ADS-equivalent
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
| instrument | gross amount | evidence date | settlement | treatment | why it matters | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01Latest options + granted RSU delivery ceilingaward | 238,520,336ordinary shares | new or existing shares | candidate | Use as the latest gross disclosed award-delivery ceiling; do not add older March plan balances again. | source ↗ | |
| 022024 + 2025 convertible-note maximumconvertible note | 692,857,552ordinary shares | cash ads or combination | stress | Maximum ordinary-share delivery, not conversion probability. Any converted shares require simultaneous removal of the related claim from EV. | source ↗ | |
| 03Existing-share plan instrumentsoffset | 28,819,834ordinary shares | existing shares | offset | 446,504 RSUs plus 28,373,330 options are funded with existing shares and are not incremental issuance. | source ↗ | |
| 04Convertible-note capped callsoffset | —ordinary shares | cash or ads offset | offset | The hedge can reduce potential ADS dilution, but the date-matched payoff must be modeled before assigning an amount. | source ↗ | |
| 05Unused 2024 plan capacityauthorization | 339,776,061ordinary shares | undetermined | Authorization room is excluded until an evidenced grant exists. | source ↗ |
CN-TCEHY · ordinary shares
Tencent Holdings Limited
| instrument | gross amount | evidence date | settlement | treatment | why it matters | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01Awards outstanding at 30 Juneaward | 118,201,248ordinary shares | trustee existing or new shares | candidate | Gross award inventory before cohort vesting, forfeiture and settlement-source assumptions. | source ↗ | |
| 02Options outstanding at 30 Juneoption | 73,658,631ordinary shares | exercise with share surrender | candidate | Weighted-average strike HKD394.68; 44.706m were exercisable. Expected dilution requires price, strike, life and net-settlement logic. | source ↗ | |
| 0314 August new-share award grantaward | 38,637,166ordinary shares | new shares | candidate | Vests over 19–48 months with no performance targets; must be rolled into the 30 June balance, not added blindly. | source ↗ | |
| 0414 August option grantoption | 1,952,440ordinary shares | new shares on exercise | candidate | Strike HKD466.72 versus HKD440 close; seven-year term and 20–48 month vesting. | source ↗ | |
| 05Shares surrendered on H1 exercisesoffset | 7,933,781ordinary shares | net share settlement | offset | 13.185m options exercised but only 5.251m net shares were issued after exercise-price and tax settlement. | source ↗ | |
| 06Future award capacityauthorization | 136,729,081ordinary shares | undetermined | Scheme authorization, not a granted award. | source ↗ | ||
| 07Future option capacityauthorization | 244,009,868ordinary shares | undetermined | Scheme authorization, not an outstanding option. | source ↗ |
CN-BIDU · ADS-equivalent
Baidu, Inc.
| instrument | gross amount | evidence date | settlement | treatment | why it matters | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01Unvested restricted sharesaward | 94,060,768ordinary shares | shares on vesting | candidate | Requires 2026 grants, vesting and forfeiture roll-forward. | source ↗ | |
| 02Options outstandingoption | 10,040,152ordinary shares | shares on exercise | candidate | Weighted-average exercise price US$16 per ordinary share; 9.264m exercisable. | source ↗ | |
| 03Q2 diluted weighted-average uplifthistorical denominator | 39,000,000ordinary shares | gaap eps denominator | historical | Historical quarterly EPS sensitivity, not a spot instrument count. | source ↗ | |
| 04Reserved / expected-cancellation bucketoffset | 16,863,158ordinary shares | unresolved | offset | Already excluded from legal outstanding; instrument-level composition must be reconciled before further treatment. | source ↗ | |
| 052026 plan authorizationauthorization | 271,349,225ordinary shares | undetermined | Ten-percent authorization ceiling, not outstanding awards. | source ↗ |
CN-SMIC · issuer-wide shares
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation
| instrument | gross amount | evidence date | settlement | treatment | why it matters | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01Options outstanding at 31 Augustoption | 8,262,430ordinary shares | trustee or new shares unresolved | candidate | June WAEP was HKD16.76; the August return shows zero new-share delivery for this row, so treatment is blocked. | source ↗ | |
| 02Disclosed unvested award ceilingaward | 10,556,266ordinary shares | hk or star shares | candidate | Latest disclosed award-delivery ceiling; vesting and venue composition remain separate inputs. | source ↗ | |
| 03H1 options exercisedhistorical denominator | 559,257ordinary shares | historical issuance | historical | Historical movement used for roll-forward, not future dilution. | source ↗ | |
| 042024 plan available capacityauthorization | 567,441,874ordinary shares | undetermined | Unallocated authorization is excluded. | source ↗ |
CN-GDS · ADS-equivalent
GDS Holdings Limited
| instrument | gross amount | evidence date | settlement | treatment | why it matters | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01Unvested restricted sharesaward | 42,491,096ordinary shares | depositary reserve or new shares | candidate | Model delivery against the already-issued depositary reserve before adding any new shares. | source ↗ | |
| 02Already-issued depositary award reserveoffset | 48,718,352ordinary shares | already issued | offset | Removed from current economic common and available for future award delivery. | source ↗ | |
| 032029 convertible notesconvertible note | 99,200,000ordinary shares | class a on conversion | stress | Maximum conversion shares; remove the converted note claim from EV in the same scenario. | source ↗ | |
| 042030 convertible notesconvertible note | 189,387,632ordinary shares | class a on conversion | stress | Maximum conversion shares; not an expected conversion. | source ↗ | |
| 052032 convertible notesconvertible note | 133,030,920ordinary shares | class a on conversion | stress | Maximum conversion shares; not an expected conversion. | source ↗ | |
| 06Series A preferredpreferred | 33,707,864ordinary shares | class a on conversion | stress | Scenario conversion also removes the preferred claim; cash or PIK dividend can change the claim. | source ↗ | |
| 07Series B preferredpreferred | 44,096,580ordinary shares | class a on conversion after 2027 | stress | Not convertible before 31 March 2027; later conversion is subject to price tests and PIK can grow the claim. | source ↗ | |
| 08Borrowed delta sharesoffset | 48,000,000ordinary shares | borrowed excluded from outstanding | offset | Never add separately when the related note conversion is already included. | source ↗ | |
| 09S-8 registered plan capacityauthorization | 30,718,000ordinary shares | mixed new and returned shares | 22.190m new evergreen reserve plus 8.528m returned already-issued shares; exclude wholesale addition. | source ↗ |
P05.6 / OWNER-CASH CONTROL · v0.1.0
Five cash bridges. Zero owner-cash approvals.
We can reproduce what crossed the cash-flow statement. We cannot yet prove how much was maintenance, how much was expansion, or how much ultimately belongs to the listed shareholder.
OBSERVED RESIDUAL ≠ OWNER CASHPRE-COMMITTED RULES
The owner-cash protocol
- 01
Use operating cash flow and cash capex from the same period and consolidation perimeter.
- 02
Publish OCF minus cash capex as an observed post-capex residual—not as owner cash.
- 03
Reconcile every extra adjustment in a company-defined FCF measure.
- 04
Leave maintenance and growth capex null when disclosure does not support a reproducible split.
- 05
Approve owner cash only after same-period reconciliation, maintenance evidence, mandatory claims and shareholder cash access pass.
RECONCILIATION MATRIX
Same arithmetic. Different economics.
| company | operating cash flow | cash capex | observed residual | company FCF | maintenance / growth | owner cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABAFY ended 2026-03-31 | +76.213 RMBbn | +122.021 RMBbn | −45.808 RMBbn | −46.609 RMBbn | NULL / NULL | BLOCKED |
| TCEHYFY ended 2025-12-31 | +303.1 RMBbn | +88.3 RMBbn | +214.8 RMBbn | +182.6 RMBbn | NULL / NULL | BLOCKED |
| BIDUFY ended 2025-12-31 | −3.013 RMBbn | +12.073 RMBbn | −15.086 RMBbn | −15.086 RMBbn | NULL / NULL | BLOCKED |
| SMICFY ended 2025-12-31 | +3.194303 USDbn | +8.399826 USDbn | −5.205523 USDbn | — | NULL / NULL | BLOCKED |
| GDSFY ended 2025-12-31 | +3.365254 RMBbn | +4.691137 RMBbn | −1.325883 RMBbn | — | NULL / NULL | BLOCKED |
APPROVAL CONTROL
Three gates before approval
CN-ALI · FY ended 2026-03-31
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
observed bridge · 76.213 − 122.021 = -45.808 RMBbnOCF less cash purchases of PP&E and intangible assets, adjusted to exclude changes in buyer-protection deposits.
- Purchase of intangible assets−0.874 RMBbn
- Buyer-protection deposit adjustment+0.073 RMBbn
not disclosed
- The annual filing says capex primarily funded cloud computer equipment and data centers, digital platforms, logistics infrastructure, land and campuses.
- Lease, financing and minority/VIE cash-access claims are not yet reconciled into a shareholder-level bridge.
CN-TCEHY · FY ended 2025-12-31
Tencent Holdings Limited
observed bridge · 303.1 − 88.3 = 214.8 RMBbnOCF less cash paid for capex, media content and lease liabilities.
- Media-content payments−24.6 RMBbn
- Lease-liability payments−7.6 RMBbn
not disclosed
- Operating capex was RMB73.1bn and non-operating capex RMB6.1bn, but the filing does not split maintenance from expansion.
- Media rights and leases are recurring cash claims in Tencent’s own definition; investment-company cash and operating-company cash also need a transferability perimeter.
CN-BIDU · FY ended 2025-12-31
Baidu, Inc.
observed bridge · -3.013 − 12.073 = -15.086 RMBbnFY free cash flow equals consolidated OCF less acquisition of fixed assets.
- extra FCF adjustments—
not disclosed
- The cash-flow statement does not identify maintenance, AI-cloud expansion or Apollo/robotaxi capex separately.
- Kunlunxin separation, VIE cash access and financing obligations require a shareholder-level perimeter before owner cash can be estimated.
CN-SMIC · FY ended 2025-12-31
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation
observed bridge · 3.194303 − 8.399826 = -5.205523 USDbnnot reported / not reconciled
- extra FCF adjustments—
not disclosed
- The annual report says most capital expenditure funded capacity expansion, but provides no reproducible maintenance amount.
- Government assistance, lease payments, tool prepayments and cross-market shareholder claims need normalized treatment.
CN-GDS · FY ended 2025-12-31
GDS Holdings Limited
observed bridge · 3.365254 − 4.691137 = -1.325883 RMBbnnot reported / not reconciled
- extra FCF adjustments—
not disclosed
- Development is modular and the disclosed continuing capex includes data-center expansion; no maintenance/expansion split is reported.
- Finance leases, convertibles, preferred claims, project financing and DayOne economics must be bridged without mixing continuing and deconsolidated operations.
PUBLIC LAB / DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
Research-to-Media Protocol
A strong laboratory must also be compelling media. The story travels only after the evidence boundary travels with it.
- 01Audited workpaper
- 02Append-only public log
- 03Purpose-built visual metaphor
- 04Source-linked social capsule
- 05Challenge and correction loop
P05.7 / THREE-YEAR CASH-CLAIMS HISTORY · v0.1.0
Fifteen annual periods. Zero invented maintenance points.
The time series separates cash PP&E, reported capex, filing-defined claims and unresolved shareholder access. A wide honest range is more useful than a precise fiction.
MAINTENANCE RANGE ≠ OWNER CASHPRE-COMMITTED RANGE POLICY
Five rules before interpretation
- 01
Use audited annual periods and the same consolidation perimeter.
- 02
Separate cash PP&E from reported capex whenever the filing reports both.
- 03
Reconcile explicit recurring and mandatory claims without inventing missing claims.
- 04
Keep maintenance at a hard 0–cash-capex bound until a scope-matched disclosure supports a tighter range.
- 05
Do not rename the resulting range owner cash before shareholder-access and mandatory-claims gates pass.
CASH INTENSITY / CLAIMS / BOUNDS
The three-year cash-claims map
Open a company to inspect cash intensity, filing-defined claims and the hard maintenance boundary.
01BABAAlibaba Group Holding Limited3-year trend comparable · owner perimeter incomplete
Cash investment accelerated sharply, but the filing does not identify a reproducible maintenance share. The company FCF bridge is exact; the owner-cash bridge is not.
The filing identifies cloud, AI, logistics and campus investment uses, but does not quantify replacement versus expansion. Hard maintenance range therefore remains 0 to cash PP&E in the company FCF scope.
- Buyer-protection deposits are restricted merchant funds and are removed from company FCF.
- Cash transfers across the parent, subsidiaries and VIEs do not prove distributable cash to the listed shareholder.
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
- Intangible purchases−0.842 RMBbn
- Buyer-protection deposit adjustment+2.038 RMBbn
none reported in this bridge
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
- Buyer-protection deposit adjustment−5.361 RMBbn
none reported in this bridge
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
- Intangible purchases−0.874 RMBbn
- Buyer-protection deposit adjustment+0.073 RMBbn
none reported in this bridge
02TCEHYTencent Holdings Limited3-year trend comparable · owner perimeter incomplete
Tencent provides the cleanest repeated claim bridge: capex paid, media-content payments and lease-liability payments reconcile company FCF in every year.
Operating/non-operating capex is not a maintenance/growth split. It cannot justify a maintenance point estimate, even though the recurring media and lease claims are explicit.
- Investment-disposal proceeds and buybacks are allocation decisions, not operating owner cash.
- Cash access through subsidiaries and VIEs still requires legal and distribution analysis.
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
- Media-content payments−24.7 RMBbn
- Lease-liability payments−7.6 RMBbn
none reported in this bridge
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
- Media-content payments−24 RMBbn
- Lease-liability payments−7.1 RMBbn
none reported in this bridge
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
- Media-content payments−24.6 RMBbn
- Lease-liability payments−7.6 RMBbn
none reported in this bridge
03BIDUBaidu, Inc.3-year trend comparable · owner perimeter incomplete
Baidu FCF is a reproducible OCF-minus-capex series, but 2025 shows a severe cash inflection and the group perimeter includes iQIYI.
The annual table provides exact capex but no maintenance/growth split. Separate intangible purchases are visible and remain unclassified rather than silently absorbed into maintenance.
- Baidu Core and iQIYI cash economics must be separated for an AGI-specific conclusion.
- VIE transfers and the possible Kunlunxin separation can change shareholder cash access.
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
none reported in this bridge
- Intangible-asset acquisitions outside company FCF+0.105 RMBbn
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
none reported in this bridge
- Intangible-asset acquisitions outside company FCF+0.125 RMBbn
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
none reported in this bridge
- Intangible-asset acquisitions outside company FCF+1.344 RMBbn
04SMICSemiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation3-year trend comparable · owner perimeter incomplete
Three years show sustained cash capex above OCF. The filing says most 2025 capex funded capacity expansion, but does not disclose a reproducible maintenance amount.
“Most” is directional evidence that expansion dominates, not a scope-matched numeric split. We keep the hard range at 0 to cash PP&E and record the expansion signal separately.
FY2025 annual report: most capital expenditure was used for capacity expansion.- Government assistance, tool prepayments, leases and restricted cross-venue cash require a separate claims bridge.
- Cash capex intensity is evidence of investment, not proof that expansion creates value.
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
none reported in this bridge
none reported in this bridge
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
none reported in this bridge
- Intangible-asset acquisitions+0.005592 USDbn
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
none reported in this bridge
- Intangible-asset acquisitions+0.003645 USDbn
05GDSGDS Holdings Limited3-year trend comparable · owner perimeter incomplete
The restated continuing-operation series is comparable, but current cash PPE, reported capex, finance-lease payments and the retained DayOne claim are different economic objects.
The filing says capex funds data-center development, but does not isolate sustaining spend. The hard range remains 0 to cash PP&E and land-use-right payments.
- DayOne was deconsolidated at the end of 2024; the continuing series is restated, while the retained minority stake remains outside operating cash.
- Preferred dividends, finance leases, vendor financing and statutory reserves are mandatory claims before common-share owner cash.
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
- Redeemable preferred dividends−0.053923 RMBbn
- Finance-lease and financing payments−0.986888 RMBbn
none reported in this bridge
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
- Redeemable preferred dividends−0.054169 RMBbn
- Finance-lease and financing payments−0.545911 RMBbn
none reported in this bridge
This is a mechanical envelope after resolved filing claims—not owner cash, valuation or a capital instruction.
- Redeemable preferred dividends−0.054124 RMBbn
- Finance-lease and financing payments−0.62667 RMBbn
- PP&E paid through vendor financing−0.113135 RMBbn
none reported in this bridge
P05.9 / OWNER-CASH SCENARIO ENGINE · v0.1.0
One cash equation. Three sensitivities. Still zero invented owner cash.
The engine exposes what maintenance uncertainty does to annual operating cash—then stops at the ownership boundary. A scenario is a controlled question, not a forecast, valuation or order.
OPERATING ENVELOPE ≠ DISTRIBUTABLE OWNER CASHNO BASE CASE / NO ACCESS HAIRCUT
Five rules that make the range decision-safe
- 01
Start from same-period operating cash flow and cash capex in one consolidation perimeter.
- 02
Keep maintenance between the disclosed hard endpoints: zero and current cash capex.
- 03
Use the 50% midpoint only as mechanical sensitivity—never as a base case or estimate.
- 04
Apply each resolved period adjustment once; preserve already-counted claims behind a double-count guard.
- 05
Treat shareholder access as a proof gate, not an invented haircut. Without recurring evidence, owner cash stays null.
MECHANICAL SENSITIVITY / FIVE ISSUERS
Select a sensitivity lens
The selected lens highlights one mechanical maintenance assumption across all five issuers. The other endpoints remain visible so uncertainty cannot disappear.
01BABAAlibaba Group Holding LimitedFY2026 · Parent flow + declared allocation
Audited bridge equation
OCF − MAINTENANCE ± RESOLVED ADJUSTMENTSTreat all current cash capex as maintenance. This is the lower endpoint of the disclosed hard range, not a forecast.
NOT AN ESTIMATEA mechanical 50% sensitivity used to expose model curvature. It is explicitly not a base case, estimate or target.
NOT AN ESTIMATETreat none of current cash capex as maintenance. This is the upper endpoint—not evidence that capex can disappear.
NOT AN ESTIMATESubsidiary dividends reached the parent and a shareholder distribution was declared. Recurring conversion of operating cash into listed-owner cash is still not proven.
Audited parent-only dividend receipt
Parent-only schedule ↗A downstream distribution channel exists; declaration is not recurring owner cash.
FY2026 Form 20-F ↗- PRC restricted net assets344.6 RMBbnaccess gate
- Earnings reserved for permanent reinvestment in China278.9 RMBbnaccess gate
- PRC dividend withholding: generally 5%–10%; filing accrues substantially all distributable earnings except the permanent-reinvestment amountsubtract when remitted
- FY2026 regular dividend declared2.5 USDbnallocation after owner cash
none in this bridge
- Maintenance share is unquantified.
- Withholding and legal access must be applied to an evidenced remittance path.
- A declared distribution is capital allocation, not recurring owner cash.
02TCEHYTencent Holdings LimitedFY2025 · Listed distribution observed
Audited bridge equation
OCF − MAINTENANCE ± RESOLVED ADJUSTMENTSTreat all current cash capex as maintenance. This is the lower endpoint of the disclosed hard range, not a forecast.
NOT AN ESTIMATEA mechanical 50% sensitivity used to expose model curvature. It is explicitly not a base case, estimate or target.
NOT AN ESTIMATETreat none of current cash capex as maintenance. This is the upper endpoint—not evidence that capex can disappear.
NOT AN ESTIMATEA cash dividend reached common shareholders. That proves a route existed in the period, not that the scenario envelope is distributable every year.
A recorded parent claim exists, but stock is not annual cash generation.
Annual Report 2025 ↗Audited cash distribution to common shareholders
Annual Report 2025 ↗- Cash, term deposits and restricted cash held in mainland China under exchange and treasury restrictions164.736 RMBbnaccess gate
- Restricted cash, mainly regulatory reserves6.977 RMBbnaccess gate
- Withholding tax on earnings expected to be remitted6.471 RMBbnalready in tax expense
- Lease-liability carrying amount18.666 RMBbnev claim not annual cash flow
- Dividends paid to the Company’s shareholders37.535 RMBbnallocation after owner cash
- Dividends paid to non-controlling interests2.372 RMBbnoutside common owner perimeter
- Lease-liability payments: already deducted in company-defined FCF7.6 RMBbnalready in company fcf
- Maintenance share is unquantified.
- Mainland restrictions and tax leakage remain separate access gates.
- NCI and funded lease claims remain outside common-owner annual flow.
03BIDUBaidu, Inc.FY2025 · Parent reached / owner route absent
Audited bridge equation
OCF − MAINTENANCE ± RESOLVED ADJUSTMENTSTreat all current cash capex as maintenance. This is the lower endpoint of the disclosed hard range, not a forecast.
NOT AN ESTIMATEA mechanical 50% sensitivity used to expose model curvature. It is explicitly not a base case, estimate or target.
NOT AN ESTIMATETreat none of current cash capex as maintenance. This is the upper endpoint—not evidence that capex can disappear.
NOT AN ESTIMATEA subsidiary distribution reached Baidu, Inc.; no listed-shareholder cash dividend was observed through the audited period.
Aggregate profits declared and distributed upstream
FY2025 Form 20-F ↗Direct audited parent receipt
FY2025 Form 20-F ↗No historical cash dividend through the audited period
FY2025 Form 20-F ↗- Intangible-asset acquisitions outside company FCF1.344 RMBbnunclassified claim
- Paid-up capital, statutory reserves and VIE net assets without legal ownership40.4 RMBbnaccess gate
- Consolidated restricted cash11.697 RMBbnaccess gate
- PRC dividend withholding: 5% if treaty conditions pass, otherwise 10%subtract when remitted
- No cash dividend declared or paid through FY2025; first policy adopted in Q1 20260 RMBbnoutside period
none in this bridge
- Maintenance share is unquantified.
- VIE and restricted-fund perimeter is incomplete.
- The post-period dividend policy has no audited recurrence history.
04SMICSemiconductor Manufacturing International CorporationFY2025 · Capital retained / no distribution
Audited bridge equation
OCF − MAINTENANCE ± RESOLVED ADJUSTMENTSTreat all current cash capex as maintenance. This is the lower endpoint of the disclosed hard range, not a forecast.
NOT AN ESTIMATEA mechanical 50% sensitivity used to expose model curvature. It is explicitly not a base case, estimate or target.
NOT AN ESTIMATETreat none of current cash capex as maintenance. This is the upper endpoint—not evidence that capex can disappear.
NOT AN ESTIMATENo shareholder distribution was observed; the filing explicitly links retained funds to expansion and core-business development.
No distribution observed in the audited three-year window
Annual Report 2025 ↗- Intangible-asset acquisitions0.003645 USDbnunclassified claim
- Borrowings, bonds and lease liabilities12.596181 USDbnev claim not annual cash flow
- Non-controlling interests in consolidated equity13.580853 USDbnoutside common owner perimeter
- Restricted cash reported at year-end0 USDbnaccess gate
- No cash dividends declared or paid; funds retained for capacity expansion and core-business development0 USDbnallocation after owner cash
none in this bridge
- Maintenance share is unquantified despite directional expansion evidence.
- Debt and NCI belong in a later enterprise-to-equity bridge.
- Cross-venue shareholder economics are not normalized.
05GDSGDS Holdings LimitedFY2025 · Outbound funder / upstream absent
Audited bridge equation
OCF − MAINTENANCE ± RESOLVED ADJUSTMENTSTreat all current cash capex as maintenance. This is the lower endpoint of the disclosed hard range, not a forecast.
NOT AN ESTIMATEA mechanical 50% sensitivity used to expose model curvature. It is explicitly not a base case, estimate or target.
NOT AN ESTIMATETreat none of current cash capex as maintenance. This is the upper endpoint—not evidence that capex can disappear.
NOT AN ESTIMATEThe listed parent funded operations and received only a small loan repayment; no upstream dividend or distribution was observed in the three-year window.
Parent funded subsidiaries rather than receiving an operating distribution
FY2025 Form 20-F ↗Small repayment received by the parent
FY2025 Form 20-F ↗No dividend or distribution was made to the parent
FY2025 Form 20-F ↗- Short- and long-term debt including finance-lease and financing obligations46.2105 RMBbnev claim not annual cash flow
- Restricted net assets, mainly paid-in registered capital26.2484 RMBbnaccess gate
- PRC statutory reserves0.3978 RMBbnaccess gate
- DayOne minority stake: 30.1% at year-end, approximately 19.9% at report date after financing and repurchasevalue separately not owner cash
- Redeemable preferred-share dividends0.054124 RMBbnalready in cash claims bridge
- Finance-lease and other financing payments0.62667 RMBbnalready in cash claims bridge
- Maintenance share is unquantified.
- VIE cash and DayOne remain outside direct listed-owner cash.
- Debt, financing and preferred claims constrain the common-owner perimeter.
P05.10 / FROZEN EVIDENCE CONTRACTS · v0.1.0
Ten unknowns have pre-committed retrieval contracts.
Five issuers. Two proof tracks each. Every contract froze an official endpoint, exact metric, freshness control and PASS/FAIL rule before collection. P05.11 execution receipts follow below.
CONTRACTS FROZEN / COLLECTION RUNS BELOWPRE-COMMIT BEFORE FETCH
Five controls before collection
- 01
A baseline filing is evidence already read; a discovery endpoint is where the machine looks for the next primary document.
- 02
A page change creates a candidate evidence packet. It never creates PASS, owner cash or a trade.
- 03
PASS and FAIL rules are frozen before collection so a persuasive new disclosure cannot move the goalposts.
- 04
The review-by date is an internal freshness control, not issuer guidance or a predicted filing date.
- 05
Only a signed evidence packet can change a research verdict; capital authorization remains a separate human and legal gate.
MACHINE CONTRACT / HUMAN CAPITAL FIREWALL
From changed page to governed verdict
- 01discover
- 02fetch primary
- 03extract metric
- 04test frozen rule
- 05publish verdict
All jobs · 10
01BABAAlibaba Group Holding Limited2 JOBS · 0 PASS
Audited amount or percentage of replacement, sustaining or compliance capex in the same consolidation perimeter as operating cash flow.
Cash capex is quantified, but the filing does not reproduce a maintenance/growth split.
FY2026 Form 20-F ↗issuer financial report index
machine search terms · capital expenditure · maintenance · replacement · data center · cloud infrastructureAlibaba financial reports ↗PASS only if a primary filing quantifies sustaining/maintenance capex, or provides a reproducible asset-level bridge to it for the same period.
FAIL for total capex, management adjectives or growth-project lists without a quantified sustaining boundary.
Two consecutive audited periods with parent-company cash receipts from subsidiaries plus cash dividends or executed repurchases paid by the listed parent, with restricted amounts and withholding identified.
Parent receipt and a declared distribution are observed for one period; recurrence is not yet proven.
FY2026 Form 20-F ↗issuer sec filing index
machine search terms · cash flows through our organization · dividend received · dividends paid · share repurchase · restricted net assets · withholdingAlibaba SEC filings ↗PASS only after the complete metric is observed in two consecutive audited periods; a declaration without payment does not pass.
FAIL if cash remains at subsidiaries, distributions are only declared, or restrictions/tax cannot be reconciled to the parent-to-owner route.
02TCEHYTencent Holdings Limited2 JOBS · 0 PASS
Same-period quantified sustaining capex or a reproducible replacement schedule for servers, network equipment and facilities.
Operating and non-operating capex are separated; maintenance and expansion are not.
FY2025 annual report ↗issuer financial report index
machine search terms · capital expenditure · operating capex · server · replacement · maintenance · AI infrastructureTencent financial reports ↗PASS only on a disclosed sustaining amount/ratio or a period-consistent asset replacement bridge.
FAIL if the source only separates operating from non-operating capex or labels spending as AI investment without a sustaining measure.
Two consecutive audited periods of cash paid to common shareholders, reconciled to parent liquidity, withholding and NCI distributions.
A cash dividend to common shareholders is audited; a forward recurrence test remains open.
FY2025 annual report ↗issuer results index
machine search terms · dividends paid · distribution · share repurchase · withholding tax · non-controlling interestsTencent results ↗PASS when the next audited period repeats the downstream payment and all specified leakages reconcile without double counting.
FAIL if payment stops, comes from non-recurring asset disposal, or the parent/liability perimeter cannot be reconciled.
03BIDUBaidu, Inc.2 JOBS · 0 PASS
Audited sustaining capex amount/ratio, or a reproducible fixed-asset roll-forward tagged to existing versus new capacity.
The annual cash-capex line is reproducible; maintenance, AI cloud and Apollo expansion are not separated.
FY2025 Form 20-F ↗issuer financial report index
machine search terms · acquisition of fixed assets · capital expenditure · maintenance · AI Cloud · Apollo GoBaidu financial reports ↗PASS only if the primary source quantifies sustaining capex or exposes a reproducible capacity-linked decomposition.
FAIL for aggregate fixed-asset purchases or product-growth commentary without a cash amount tied to sustaining capacity.
Actual cash dividend paid or executed repurchases in two consecutive reporting periods, reconciled to parent receipts and restricted/VIE cash.
Upstream cash reached the parent; no historical cash dividend reached listed shareholders through FY2025.
FY2025 Form 20-F ↗issuer release index
machine search terms · dividend · share repurchase · returned to shareholders · cash distribution · restricted cashBaidu press releases ↗PASS only after cash—not authorization or policy language—reaches shareholders in two consecutive reporting periods and the source of funds reconciles.
FAIL for an unexecuted authorization, a one-off payment, or distributions funded without a proven parent cash route.
04SMICSemiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation2 JOBS · 0 PASS
Audited sustaining capex or a reproducible bridge using replacement tools, facility upkeep and capacity-addition spending for the same period.
The filing says most capex served capacity expansion, but does not quantify maintenance.
FY2025 annual report / HKEX ↗issuer financial index
machine search terms · capital expenditures · capacity expansion · maintenance · equipment replacement · depreciationSMIC financials ↗PASS only with a quantified sustaining amount/ratio or a tool-and-facility bridge that independently reproduces it.
FAIL for “mostly expansion” or capacity guidance without a quantified sustaining floor.
Two consecutive audited periods with cash dividends or executed buybacks for common shareholders, reconciled across H/A shares, debt, NCI and retained-expansion policy.
No cash distribution is observed in FY2023–FY2025; funds are explicitly retained for expansion.
FY2025 annual report / HKEX ↗issuer statutory index
machine search terms · dividend · profit distribution · repurchase · cash distribution · non-controlling interestsSMIC statutory documents ↗PASS only after two audited periods show executed common-owner cash return and the cross-venue denominator plus competing claims reconcile.
FAIL while distributions remain zero, retained capital is committed to expansion, or H/A shareholder economics cannot be normalized.
05GDSGDS Holdings Limited2 JOBS · 0 PASS
Same-perimeter sustaining capex for stabilized data centers, or a reproducible per-square-metre/per-MW replacement and upkeep bridge excluding development capacity.
Continuing cash capex is reproducible, but maintenance and expansion are not separated.
FY2025 Form 20-F ↗issuer results index
machine search terms · capital expenditures · maintenance · area in service · committed area · MW · development pipelineGDS quarterly results ↗PASS only with a quantified sustaining amount/ratio or an operating-unit bridge that excludes new builds and the deconsolidated DayOne perimeter.
FAIL for total company capex, pipeline guidance or per-MW data that mixes stabilized, development and DayOne assets.
Two consecutive audited periods of subsidiary/VIE cash distribution to the parent plus executed common-shareholder return, after finance leases, preferred claims and project financing.
The parent funded operations; no upstream dividend or distribution was observed in FY2023–FY2025.
FY2025 Form 20-F ↗issuer results index
machine search terms · cash flows through our organization · dividend to parent · distribution · share repurchase · preferred shares · finance leaseGDS quarterly results ↗PASS only after two audited periods show upstream operating cash and executed common-owner return after all funded claims, with DayOne valued separately.
FAIL while the parent remains a net funder, only loan repayment is observed, or common-owner cash is subordinated to unresolved funded/preferred claims.
P05.11 / IMMUTABLE EVIDENCE RUN · v1
The queue has executed. The verdicts have not moved.
The collector reached official issuer or SEC routes, archived source bytes by SHA-256, extracted bounded candidate passages and executed the rules frozen in P05.10. Incomplete evidence stays incomplete.
COLLECTION LIVE / 0 RESEARCH VERDICTS / 0 CAPITAL ACTIONSRaw source bytes stay outside the public build
- semantic fingerprint
- 2921badc1029
- endpoint bytes
- 96,610
- archived documents
- 5
- candidate passages
- 17
capital expenditureross-border businesses, and we may need to accelerate the transition to “local-to-local” fulfillment models or develop other new business practices, which structural shifts may increase our capital expenditure and operating costs, and there is no assurance that these new business practices would yield the operational and financial results that we expect. Furthermore, the U.S. Department of Commer
EXCERPT SHA-256 · 60fec35f2bc9
- semantic fingerprint
- f474e08ef38d
- endpoint bytes
- 88,232
- archived documents
- 5
- candidate passages
- 7
dividends paidt enterprise by these investors is also subject to PRC tax at a current rate of 10%, subject to any exemption set forth in relevant tax treaties. If we are deemed a PRC resident enterprise, dividends paid on our ordinary shares or ADSs, and any gain realized by the non-resident enterprise investors from the transfer of our ordinary shares or ADSs, may be treated as income derived from source
EXCERPT SHA-256 · fcec328e1f0c
- semantic fingerprint
- 4671d44ef5f1
- endpoint bytes
- 187,714
- archived documents
- 4
- candidate passages
- 0
No bounded candidate passage matched the contract terms.
- semantic fingerprint
- a1bd58258e21
- endpoint bytes
- 185,804
- archived documents
- 5
- candidate passages
- 0
No bounded candidate passage matched the contract terms.
- semantic fingerprint
- 2794c632175b
- endpoint bytes
- 92,879
- archived documents
- 5
- candidate passages
- 6
acquisition of fixed assetsbillion (US$3.6 billion) in 2025, consisting primarily of RMB13.0 billion (US$1.9 billion) in net purchase of wealth management products and deposits and RMB12.1 billion (US$1.7 billion) in acquisition of fixed assets, partially offset by RMB3.9 billion (US$563 million) in proceeds from disposal of equity investments. Net cash used in investing activities was RMB8.6 billion in 2024, consisting primaril
EXCERPT SHA-256 · 9723f16760e8
- semantic fingerprint
- 331055898eec
- endpoint bytes
- 92,879
- archived documents
- 5
- candidate passages
- 6
dividendm 11. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk 200 Item 12. Description of Securities Other than Equity Securities 201 Part II 205 Item 13. Defaults, Dividend Arrearages and Delinquencies 205 Item 14. Material Modifications to the Rights of Security Holders and Use of Proceeds. 205 Item 15. Controls and Procedures 206 Item 1
EXCERPT SHA-256 · 9ba149a3be5e
- semantic fingerprint
- fbaae3fbe781
- endpoint bytes
- 141,535
- archived documents
- 1
- candidate passages
- 0
No bounded candidate passage matched the contract terms.
- semantic fingerprint
- 162a46d70354
- endpoint bytes
- 83,167
- archived documents
- 2
- candidate passages
- 0
No bounded candidate passage matched the contract terms.
- semantic fingerprint
- 08afdd446fb6
- endpoint bytes
- 73,336
- archived documents
- 5
- candidate passages
- 6
capital expendituresand results of operations; ● Any inability to manage the growth of our operations could disrupt our business and reduce our profitability; ● Our business requires us to make significant capital expenditures and resource commitments prior to recognizing revenue for those services; ● The data center business is capital-intensive, and we expect our capacity to generate capital in the short term
EXCERPT SHA-256 · 750ad2d64be2
- semantic fingerprint
- f90c18f524e6
- endpoint bytes
- 73,336
- archived documents
- 5
- candidate passages
- 6
cash flows through our organizationple’s Republic of China—The complex and changing regulatory environment in mainland China as well as changes in policies, laws, rules and regulations in the PRC could adversely affect us.” Cash Flows through our Organization GDS Holdings Limited is a holding company with no material operations of its own. As a result, although other means are available for us to obtain financing at the holding company level,
EXCERPT SHA-256 · b5dd8af00092
P05.12 / CITATION ENGINE · semantic-addressing-v1
A document now has coordinates. Capital still has locks.
The same reusable engine turns archived HTML and PDF files into immutable text maps, exact page/line locators and evidence-bounded model readings. It can be attached to the next issuer by configuration—not rebuilt from zero.
DOCUMENT → CITATION → MACHINE READING / ≠ VERDICT ≠ VALUATION ≠ TRADERaw bytes become a hashed semantic line map; PDFs preserve page numbers.
Contract terms point to bounded quotes with exact locators and hashes.
The model sees only those citations and the rules frozen before collection.
The result cannot approve owner cash, valuation, rank, weight or trade.
01BABA · maintenanceEVIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIL RULE6 source documents · 19,217 semantic lines · 10 CIT
What share of cash capex preserves current capacity rather than adding AI/cloud, logistics or campus capacity?
PASS only if a primary filing quantifies sustaining/maintenance capex, or provides a reproducible asset-level bridge to it for the same period.
FAIL for total capex, management adjectives or growth-project lists without a quantified sustaining boundary.
The filing reports aggregate capital expenditures, not a quantified sustaining-capex share.
- why the machine stopped here
- FY2026 capital expenditures of RMB126,063 million are reported, but no replacement, maintenance, compliance, or asset-level sustaining boundary is disclosed.
- still required
- A same-period quantified sustaining amount/ratio or reproducible asset-level bridge.
“practices, which structural shifts may increase our capital expenditure and operating costs, and there is no assurance that these new business practices would yield the”
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
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02BABA · shareholder accessINCONCLUSIVE6 source documents · 18,032 semantic lines · 7 CIT
Does operating cash repeatedly reach the listed parent and then common shareholders after legal and tax leakage?
PASS only after the complete metric is observed in two consecutive audited periods; a declaration without payment does not pass.
FAIL if cash remains at subsidiaries, distributions are only declared, or restrictions/tax cannot be reconciled to the parent-to-owner route.
The supplied evidence identifies potential withholding-tax exposure but does not establish a recurring parent-to-common-owner cash route.
- why the machine stopped here
- The citations describe tax treatment of dividends and refer to subsidiary dividends, but provide neither two consecutive periods of parent receipts nor executed listed-parent dividends or repurchases reconciled through restrictions and withholding.
- still required
- Two consecutive audited periods of subsidiary-to-parent cash receipts, executed common-owner payments, restricted cash, and actual withholding reconciliation.
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
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03TCEHY · maintenanceEVIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIL RULE5 source documents · 22,654 semantic lines · 10 CIT
How much operating capex is required to sustain current services before AI capacity expansion?
PASS only on a disclosed sustaining amount/ratio or a period-consistent asset replacement bridge.
FAIL if the source only separates operating from non-operating capex or labels spending as AI investment without a sustaining measure.
Reported capex is aggregate and is described as primarily supporting AI efforts; no sustaining measure is disclosed.
- why the machine stopped here
- The source reports capital-expenditure totals and RMB22.4 billion of capital-expenditure payments primarily supporting AI, while describing capex broadly as IT-infrastructure investment. It does not quantify replacement of existing servers, network equipment, or facilities.
- still required
- A disclosed sustaining amount/ratio or a period-consistent replacement bridge for existing infrastructure.
“Capital expenditures (d) 19,632 12,983 36,578 79,198 76,760”
“(d) Capital expenditures primarily consist of investments in IT infrastructure (including computer equipment, components, and software),”
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
04TCEHY · shareholder accessINCONCLUSIVE6 source documents · 9,716 semantic lines · 10 CIT
Is the strongest current distribution route recurring after mainland restrictions, tax and NCI claims?
PASS when the next audited period repeats the downstream payment and all specified leakages reconcile without double counting.
FAIL if payment stops, comes from non-recurring asset disposal, or the parent/liability perimeter cannot be reconciled.
Comparative cash dividends to shareholders and to NCI are reported, but the required parent-liquidity, withholding, and full-route reconciliation is absent.
- why the machine stopped here
- The cited cash-flow line shows dividends paid to shareholders and dividends paid to non-controlling interests for two comparative columns. However, the evidence does not reconcile those payments to parent liquidity, mainland upstream cash, or withholding, and therefore cannot satisfy the complete metric.
- still required
- Audited period identification plus reconciliation of upstream/parent liquidity, withholding, and all NCI leakages without double counting.
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
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05BIDU · maintenanceEVIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIL RULE6 source documents · 17,538 semantic lines · 6 CIT
What portion of fixed-asset purchases sustains search and existing cloud capacity versus AI-cloud and robotaxi expansion?
PASS only if the primary source quantifies sustaining capex or exposes a reproducible capacity-linked decomposition.
FAIL for aggregate fixed-asset purchases or product-growth commentary without a cash amount tied to sustaining capacity.
The primary filing provides aggregate fixed-asset purchases, without a sustaining-capacity decomposition.
- why the machine stopped here
- The filing reports RMB8.1 billion of fixed-asset acquisitions and comparative aggregate purchase amounts, but does not tie any cash amount to sustaining search or existing cloud capacity.
- still required
- A quantified sustaining amount/ratio or reproducible fixed-asset roll-forward tagged to existing versus new capacity.
“acquisition of fixed assets, partially offset by RMB3.9 billion (US$563 million) in proceeds from disposal of equity investments.”
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
“Acquisition of fixed assets”
06BIDU · shareholder accessINCONCLUSIVE6 source documents · 17,538 semantic lines · 6 CIT
Will the new shareholder-return policy create a repeatable parent-to-owner cash route?
PASS only after cash—not authorization or policy language—reaches shareholders in two consecutive reporting periods and the source of funds reconciles.
FAIL for an unexecuted authorization, a one-off payment, or distributions funded without a proven parent cash route.
The evidence describes legal and debt restrictions on upstream dividends, but not executed shareholder cash returns or a reconciled parent cash route.
- why the machine stopped here
- The filing states that subsidiary debt may restrict dividends to Baidu, Inc. and that mainland subsidiaries may pay only from retained earnings. It does not show cash dividends or repurchases executed in two reporting periods, parent receipts, or restricted/VIE cash reconciliation.
- still required
- Two consecutive periods of executed common-owner cash return, parent funding-source reconciliation, and restricted/VIE cash amounts.
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
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07SMIC · maintenanceEVIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIL RULE2 source documents · 8,102 semantic lines · 6 CIT
How much fab spending preserves installed output versus expanding wafer capacity?
PASS only with a quantified sustaining amount/ratio or a tool-and-facility bridge that independently reproduces it.
FAIL for “mostly expansion” or capacity guidance without a quantified sustaining floor.
The reporting-period disclosure says most capex was used for capacity expansion and provides no quantified sustaining floor.
- why the machine stopped here
- “Most” capex being used for capacity expansion is expansion commentary, not a quantified replacement-tools or facility-upkeep amount or ratio.
- still required
- A quantified sustaining amount/ratio or independently reproducible tool-and-facility bridge.
“The Group will continue to incur capital expenditures and depreciation expenses as it equips and ramps-up additional”
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
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08SMIC · shareholder accessINCONCLUSIVE3 source documents · 8,354 semantic lines · 6 CIT
Can common shareholders receive recurring cash while expansion, debt and NCI claims are funded?
PASS only after two audited periods show executed common-owner cash return and the cross-venue denominator plus competing claims reconcile.
FAIL while distributions remain zero, retained capital is committed to expansion, or H/A shareholder economics cannot be normalized.
No cash dividends on ordinary shares are reported, but the supplied evidence does not establish whether any executed buybacks occurred or reconcile all competing claims.
- why the machine stopped here
- The disclosure expressly states that no cash dividends on ordinary shares have been declared or paid. The target and rule also cover executed buybacks and require two audited periods plus H/A, debt, NCI, and retained-expansion reconciliation; those items are not supplied.
- still required
- Two audited periods covering dividends and buybacks, with common-share denominator and debt, NCI, and retained-expansion reconciliations.
“IV. DIVIDENDS AND DIVIDEND POLICY”
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09GDS · maintenanceINCONCLUSIVE6 source documents · 15,939 semantic lines · 6 CIT
What recurring cash spend sustains the continuing data-center footprint before new capacity and DayOne economics?
PASS only with a quantified sustaining amount/ratio or an operating-unit bridge that excludes new builds and the deconsolidated DayOne perimeter.
FAIL for total company capex, pipeline guidance or per-MW data that mixes stabilized, development and DayOne assets.
The evidence describes capex for both upgrades of existing facilities and construction of new AI data centers, without a quantified stabilized-footprint sustaining measure.
- why the machine stopped here
- The cited disclosure explicitly mixes upgrades and new construction, but gives no sustaining amount, operating-unit bridge, stabilized/development split, or separate DayOne perimeter.
- still required
- Same-perimeter quantified sustaining capex or a reproducible operating-unit bridge excluding new builds and DayOne.
“Our business requires us to make significant capital expenditures and resource commitments prior to recognizing revenue for those services;”
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
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10GDS · shareholder accessINCONCLUSIVE6 source documents · 15,939 semantic lines · 6 CIT
Can cash move upstream to the listed parent and then common shareholders after funded claims?
PASS only after two audited periods show upstream operating cash and executed common-owner return after all funded claims, with DayOne valued separately.
FAIL while the parent remains a net funder, only loan repayment is observed, or common-owner cash is subordinated to unresolved funded/preferred claims.
The filing states reliance on subsidiary dividends and distributions for offshore cash, but does not evidence executed upstream cash or common-owner returns.
- why the machine stopped here
- Reliance on potential subsidiary distributions is not evidence of two consecutive periods of cash received by the parent. No executed common-shareholder payment, finance-lease, preferred-claim, project-financing, or separately valued DayOne reconciliation is supplied.
- still required
- Two audited periods of upstream subsidiary/VIE cash and executed common-owner return, reconciled after all funded claims and with DayOne separate.
“Cash Flows through our Organization”
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
Quote withheld because this source has reached the public excerpt limit; locator and hash remain auditable.
P05.13 / ADVERSARIAL VERIFICATION
The first answer is now the attack surface.
A separate model response receives the same frozen task, rules and archived citation lane. Its job is to find entailment, period, perimeter, unit and reconciliation failures—not to agree. A deterministic gate permits confirmation or downgrade only.
PRIMARY READING → ADVERSARIAL ATTACK → VERIFIED READING / NO UPGRADE · NO CAPITAL AUTHORITY01BABA · maintenanceCONFIRMEDprimary reading: SUPPORTS FAIL RULE → SUPPORTS FAIL RULE
The cited primary filing reports aggregate FY2026 capex of RMB126,063 million, not a quantified sustaining-capex share.
- adversarial rationale
- The disclosed figure is total capital expenditure. None of the assigned evidence supplies a same-period replacement, maintenance, compliance, or asset-level bridge.
- still required
- A same-period quantified sustaining amount or ratio, or a reproducible asset-level bridge.
02BABA · shareholder accessCONFIRMEDprimary reading: INCONCLUSIVE → INCONCLUSIVE
The evidence identifies potential tax treatment of subsidiary dividends but does not establish a recurring listed-parent-to-common-owner cash route.
- adversarial rationale
- The cited withholding-tax statement is conditional tax information, while the subsidiary-dividend reference does not evidence parent receipts or shareholder payment. Two consecutive complete routes are not observed.
- still required
- Two audited consecutive periods of upstream parent receipts, executed common-owner payments, and restriction/actual-withholding reconciliation.
03TCEHY · maintenanceCONFIRMEDprimary reading: SUPPORTS FAIL RULE → SUPPORTS FAIL RULE
The disclosure provides aggregate IT-infrastructure capex and AI-oriented capex payments, not a sustaining-capex measure.
- adversarial rationale
- Capex is described as investments in IT infrastructure, and RMB22.4 billion of capex payments are stated to primarily support AI efforts. Neither disclosure quantifies replacement or upkeep of existing infrastructure.
- still required
- A disclosed sustaining amount or ratio, or a period-consistent replacement bridge for existing infrastructure.
04TCEHY · shareholder accessCONFIRMEDprimary reading: INCONCLUSIVE → INCONCLUSIVE
Comparative shareholder and NCI dividend payments are shown, but the full upstream-to-owner route is not reconciled.
- adversarial rationale
- The cash-flow excerpts show two comparative amounts for shareholder dividends and NCI dividends. They do not identify audited-route completion through mainland upstream cash, parent liquidity, withholding, and all leakages.
- still required
- Audited-period identification and a reconciliation of upstream cash, parent liquidity, withholding, and NCI claims without double counting.
05BIDU · maintenanceCONFIRMEDprimary reading: SUPPORTS FAIL RULE → SUPPORTS FAIL RULE
The filing reports aggregate acquisition of fixed assets, including RMB8.1 billion, without a sustaining-capacity decomposition.
- adversarial rationale
- The cited amount is an aggregate fixed-asset acquisition within broader investing cash flows. It is not linked to sustaining search or existing cloud capacity.
- still required
- A quantified sustaining amount or ratio, or a reproducible fixed-asset roll-forward separating existing from new capacity.
06BIDU · shareholder accessCONFIRMEDprimary reading: INCONCLUSIVE → INCONCLUSIVE
The evidence documents restrictions on subsidiary dividends to Baidu, Inc., but not executed recurring shareholder cash returns.
- adversarial rationale
- Subsidiary debt instruments may restrict dividends, and mainland subsidiaries may pay only from retained earnings. These restrictions neither prove nor disprove two consecutive executed common-owner payments and a funded parent route.
- still required
- Two consecutive periods of executed common-owner cash return, parent funding-source reconciliation, and restricted/VIE cash amounts.
07SMIC · maintenanceCONFIRMEDprimary reading: SUPPORTS FAIL RULE → SUPPORTS FAIL RULE
The reporting-period disclosure states that most capex was used for capacity expansion and does not quantify sustaining fab spend.
- adversarial rationale
- “Most” is an unquantified expansion characterization. It supplies neither a replacement-tool or facility-upkeep amount nor a reproducible bridge to one.
- still required
- A quantified sustaining amount or ratio, or an independently reproducible tool-and-facility bridge.
08SMIC · shareholder accessCONFIRMEDprimary reading: INCONCLUSIVE → INCONCLUSIVE
No cash dividends on ordinary shares are declared or paid, but the evidence does not address executed buybacks or fully reconcile competing claims.
- adversarial rationale
- The dividend statement is direct, but the required common-owner return test also needs buyback coverage and two audited-period reconciliation of H/A economics, debt, NCI, and retained expansion capital.
- still required
- Two audited periods covering dividends and buybacks, with common-share denominator and debt, NCI, and retained-expansion reconciliations.
09GDS · maintenanceCONFIRMEDprimary reading: INCONCLUSIVE → INCONCLUSIVE
The cited conditional disclosure identifies upgrades and new AI-data-center construction as capex uses, but provides no quantified continuing-footprint sustaining spend.
- adversarial rationale
- The disclosure does not provide an amount, stabilized/development split, operating-unit bridge, or DayOne-separated perimeter. It therefore cannot establish the requested recurring sustaining cash spend.
- still required
- Same-perimeter quantified sustaining capex or a reproducible operating-unit bridge excluding new builds and DayOne.
10GDS · shareholder accessCONFIRMEDprimary reading: INCONCLUSIVE → INCONCLUSIVE
The filing states reliance on subsidiary dividends and distributions to fund offshore cash, not that upstream cash or common-owner returns were executed.
- adversarial rationale
- Reliance on a potential funding channel does not demonstrate two audited periods of parent cash receipts or an executed common-owner payment after funded claims. No DayOne-separated reconciliation is provided.
- still required
- Two audited periods of upstream subsidiary/VIE cash and executed common-owner return, reconciled after funded claims and with DayOne separate.
P05.14 / RESEARCH VERDICT DOCKET
Signals admitted to review: 4. Stock verdicts: zero.
The deterministic docket separates a verified task-level reading from an issuer conclusion. A candidate means the frozen rule, exact evidence IDs and both model receipts are ready for governance. It does not mean the company passed or failed, and it cannot move capital.
MACHINE READING → ADVERSARIAL VERIFICATION → VERDICT CANDIDATE / NOT A VERDICT · NO CAPITAL AUTHORITYThe task may be reviewed without changing its question, rule or evidence lane.
No issuer verdict, valuation, rank, weight or trade has been approved.
Eligible for governed review
Directional task readings that survived the adversarial gate with exact task evidence.
What share of cash capex preserves current capacity rather than adding AI/cloud, logistics or campus capacity?
FAIL for total capex, management adjectives or growth-project lists without a quantified sustaining boundary.
The cited primary filing reports aggregate FY2026 capex of RMB126,063 million, not a quantified sustaining-capex share.
Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
How much operating capex is required to sustain current services before AI capacity expansion?
FAIL if the source only separates operating from non-operating capex or labels spending as AI investment without a sustaining measure.
The disclosure provides aggregate IT-infrastructure capex and AI-oriented capex payments, not a sustaining-capex measure.
Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
What portion of fixed-asset purchases sustains search and existing cloud capacity versus AI-cloud and robotaxi expansion?
FAIL for aggregate fixed-asset purchases or product-growth commentary without a cash amount tied to sustaining capacity.
The filing reports aggregate acquisition of fixed assets, including RMB8.1 billion, without a sustaining-capacity decomposition.
Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
How much fab spending preserves installed output versus expanding wafer capacity?
FAIL for “mostly expansion” or capacity guidance without a quantified sustaining floor.
The reporting-period disclosure states that most capex was used for capacity expansion and does not quantify sustaining fab spend.
Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
Blocked before review
Inconclusive tasks remain outside governance until the named primary evidence arrives.
Does operating cash repeatedly reach the listed parent and then common shareholders after legal and tax leakage?
No directional rule is supported.
The evidence identifies potential tax treatment of subsidiary dividends but does not establish a recurring listed-parent-to-common-owner cash route.
Two audited consecutive periods of upstream parent receipts, executed common-owner payments, and restriction/actual-withholding reconciliation.
Is the strongest current distribution route recurring after mainland restrictions, tax and NCI claims?
No directional rule is supported.
Comparative shareholder and NCI dividend payments are shown, but the full upstream-to-owner route is not reconciled.
Audited-period identification and a reconciliation of upstream cash, parent liquidity, withholding, and NCI claims without double counting.
Will the new shareholder-return policy create a repeatable parent-to-owner cash route?
No directional rule is supported.
The evidence documents restrictions on subsidiary dividends to Baidu, Inc., but not executed recurring shareholder cash returns.
Two consecutive periods of executed common-owner cash return, parent funding-source reconciliation, and restricted/VIE cash amounts.
Can common shareholders receive recurring cash while expansion, debt and NCI claims are funded?
No directional rule is supported.
No cash dividends on ordinary shares are declared or paid, but the evidence does not address executed buybacks or fully reconcile competing claims.
Two audited periods covering dividends and buybacks, with common-share denominator and debt, NCI, and retained-expansion reconciliations.
What recurring cash spend sustains the continuing data-center footprint before new capacity and DayOne economics?
No directional rule is supported.
The cited conditional disclosure identifies upgrades and new AI-data-center construction as capex uses, but provides no quantified continuing-footprint sustaining spend.
Same-perimeter quantified sustaining capex or a reproducible operating-unit bridge excluding new builds and DayOne.
Can cash move upstream to the listed parent and then common shareholders after funded claims?
No directional rule is supported.
The filing states reliance on subsidiary dividends and distributions to fund offshore cash, not that upstream cash or common-owner returns were executed.
Two audited periods of upstream subsidiary/VIE cash and executed common-owner return, reconciled after funded claims and with DayOne separate.
P05.15 / DECISION PACKET
Rule-level decisions: 4. Zero blind votes.
Before an identified reviewer signs, the system exposes the machine case, the strongest counter-case, the exact primary-source coordinates and the evidence that would overturn the result.
MACHINE RECOMMENDATION ≠ SIGNED GOVERNANCE DECISION ≠ ISSUER VERDICT ≠ TRADEEQ-BABA-MAINTThe candidate passed deterministic admission and independent adversarial verification. The machine therefore recommends accepting only the stated rule result for this frozen task and citation set—not a conclusion about the issuer, security or capital.
- exact question
- Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
- what the packet supports
- The cited primary filing reports aggregate FY2026 capex of RMB126,063 million, not a quantified sustaining-capex share.
- case for approval
- FY2026 capital expenditures of RMB126,063 million are reported, but no replacement, maintenance, compliance, or asset-level sustaining boundary is disclosed.
line-addressed primary evidence
The archived excerpt proves only what this frozen source packet contains. It does not prove that no other primary disclosure quantifies maintenance spending. Approval must remain limited to this exact evidence-bound FAIL rule.
A same-period quantified sustaining amount/ratio or reproducible asset-level bridge.
EQ-TCEHY-MAINTThe candidate passed deterministic admission and independent adversarial verification. The machine therefore recommends accepting only the stated rule result for this frozen task and citation set—not a conclusion about the issuer, security or capital.
- exact question
- Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
- what the packet supports
- The disclosure provides aggregate IT-infrastructure capex and AI-oriented capex payments, not a sustaining-capex measure.
- case for approval
- The source reports capital-expenditure totals and RMB22.4 billion of capital-expenditure payments primarily supporting AI, while describing capex broadly as IT-infrastructure investment. It does not quantify replacement of existing servers, network equipment, or facilities.
line-addressed primary evidence
The archived excerpt proves only what this frozen source packet contains. It does not prove that no other primary disclosure quantifies maintenance spending. Approval must remain limited to this exact evidence-bound FAIL rule.
A disclosed sustaining amount/ratio or a period-consistent replacement bridge for existing infrastructure.
EQ-BIDU-MAINTThe candidate passed deterministic admission and independent adversarial verification. The machine therefore recommends accepting only the stated rule result for this frozen task and citation set—not a conclusion about the issuer, security or capital.
- exact question
- Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
- what the packet supports
- The filing reports aggregate acquisition of fixed assets, including RMB8.1 billion, without a sustaining-capacity decomposition.
- case for approval
- The filing reports RMB8.1 billion of fixed-asset acquisitions and comparative aggregate purchase amounts, but does not tie any cash amount to sustaining search or existing cloud capacity.
line-addressed primary evidence
The archived excerpt proves only what this frozen source packet contains. It does not prove that no other primary disclosure quantifies maintenance spending. Approval must remain limited to this exact evidence-bound FAIL rule.
A quantified sustaining amount/ratio or reproducible fixed-asset roll-forward tagged to existing versus new capacity.
EQ-SMIC-MAINTThe candidate passed deterministic admission and independent adversarial verification. The machine therefore recommends accepting only the stated rule result for this frozen task and citation set—not a conclusion about the issuer, security or capital.
- exact question
- Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
- what the packet supports
- The reporting-period disclosure states that most capex was used for capacity expansion and does not quantify sustaining fab spend.
- case for approval
- “Most” capex being used for capacity expansion is expansion commentary, not a quantified replacement-tools or facility-upkeep amount or ratio.
line-addressed primary evidence
The archived excerpt proves only what this frozen source packet contains. It does not prove that no other primary disclosure quantifies maintenance spending. Approval must remain limited to this exact evidence-bound FAIL rule.
A quantified sustaining amount/ratio or independently reproducible tool-and-facility bridge.
P05.15 / GOVERNED DECISION REGISTER
The machine may nominate. Governance must sign.
Every decision is append-only and bound to one exact docket, frozen task, rule, citation set and three-part receipt. A changed evidence packet returns to pending. Nothing here decides the issuer, valuation, weight or trade.
APPROVE / REJECT / DEFER · FROZEN TASK-RULE SCOPE ONLY · CAPITAL VAULT DISCONNECTEDAPPROVE
Accept that the cited evidence supports this frozen task rule. No issuer extrapolation.
REJECT
Do not accept the candidate as a rule-level research verdict. Record why.
DEFER
Make no verdict. Name what must be resolved before a later evidence packet.
EXACT CANDIDATE / EXACT RECEIPT
Current decision queue
These candidates survived deterministic admission. Their initial state is pending until an identified reviewer records one scoped decision.
Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
FAIL for total capex, management adjectives or growth-project lists without a quantified sustaining boundary.
Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
FAIL if the source only separates operating from non-operating capex or labels spending as AI investment without a sustaining measure.
Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
FAIL for aggregate fixed-asset purchases or product-growth commentary without a cash amount tied to sustaining capacity.
Should governance record that the frozen FAIL criterion is supported for this task, without extrapolating to the issuer or stock?
FAIL for “mostly expansion” or capacity guidance without a quantified sustaining floor.
Immutable decision history
4- 2026-09-08T11:04:34Z · github:dmytroarkasEQ-BABA-MAINT · APPROVE
Approve only the frozen EQ-BABA-MAINT FAIL rule: the cited FY2026 filing reports RMB126,063 million of aggregate capex but no quantified sustaining, replacement, or compliance allocation. This is not an issuer, valuation, weight, or trade decision.
be74afc0504f…11f43344 - 2026-09-08T11:05:53Z · github:dmytroarkasEQ-TCEHY-MAINT · APPROVE
Approve only the frozen EQ-TCEHY-MAINT FAIL rule: the cited filing reports aggregate capex and RMB22.4 billion of capex payments primarily supporting AI efforts, but no sustaining measure or replacement bridge. This is not an issuer, valuation, weight, or trade decision.
17ca6278b283…7486b660 - 2026-09-08T11:07:13Z · github:dmytroarkasEQ-BIDU-MAINT · APPROVE
Approve only the frozen EQ-BIDU-MAINT FAIL rule: the cited filing reports RMB8.1 billion of fixed-asset acquisitions without separating sustaining search/cloud capacity from AI-cloud or robotaxi expansion. This is not an issuer, valuation, weight, or trade decision.
c344675a0081…daf0ee9d - 2026-09-08T11:08:49Z · github:dmytroarkasEQ-SMIC-MAINT · APPROVE
Approve only the frozen EQ-SMIC-MAINT FAIL rule: the cited primary disclosure says most reporting-period capex funded capacity expansion but provides no quantified sustaining floor or replacement bridge. This is not an issuer, valuation, weight, or trade decision.
1f5a29324bbd…58632558
P05.16 / ISSUER EVIDENCE MATRIX
Five issuers. Ten frozen questions. No stock verdict.
The matrix makes evidence coverage visible before synthesis. Four signed cells accept a narrow research rule; six cells identify evidence still missing. Neither state ranks a company or authorizes capital.
ISSUER MATRIX ≠ ISSUER VERDICT ≠ VALUATION ≠ TRADEEQ-BABA-MAINTAWAITING GOVERNANCEWhat share of cash capex preserves current capacity rather than adding AI/cloud, logistics or campus capacity?
The cited primary filing reports aggregate FY2026 capex of RMB126,063 million, not a quantified sustaining-capex share.
A same-period quantified sustaining amount or ratio, or a reproducible asset-level bridge.
EQ-BABA-ACCESSEVIDENCE INSUFFICIENTDoes operating cash repeatedly reach the listed parent and then common shareholders after legal and tax leakage?
The evidence identifies potential tax treatment of subsidiary dividends but does not establish a recurring listed-parent-to-common-owner cash route.
Two audited consecutive periods of upstream parent receipts, executed common-owner payments, and restriction/actual-withholding reconciliation.
EQ-TCEHY-MAINTAWAITING GOVERNANCEHow much operating capex is required to sustain current services before AI capacity expansion?
The disclosure provides aggregate IT-infrastructure capex and AI-oriented capex payments, not a sustaining-capex measure.
A disclosed sustaining amount or ratio, or a period-consistent replacement bridge for existing infrastructure.
EQ-TCEHY-ACCESSEVIDENCE INSUFFICIENTIs the strongest current distribution route recurring after mainland restrictions, tax and NCI claims?
Comparative shareholder and NCI dividend payments are shown, but the full upstream-to-owner route is not reconciled.
Audited-period identification and a reconciliation of upstream cash, parent liquidity, withholding, and NCI claims without double counting.
EQ-BIDU-MAINTAWAITING GOVERNANCEWhat portion of fixed-asset purchases sustains search and existing cloud capacity versus AI-cloud and robotaxi expansion?
The filing reports aggregate acquisition of fixed assets, including RMB8.1 billion, without a sustaining-capacity decomposition.
A quantified sustaining amount or ratio, or a reproducible fixed-asset roll-forward separating existing from new capacity.
EQ-BIDU-ACCESSEVIDENCE INSUFFICIENTWill the new shareholder-return policy create a repeatable parent-to-owner cash route?
The evidence documents restrictions on subsidiary dividends to Baidu, Inc., but not executed recurring shareholder cash returns.
Two consecutive periods of executed common-owner cash return, parent funding-source reconciliation, and restricted/VIE cash amounts.
EQ-SMIC-MAINTAWAITING GOVERNANCEHow much fab spending preserves installed output versus expanding wafer capacity?
The reporting-period disclosure states that most capex was used for capacity expansion and does not quantify sustaining fab spend.
A quantified sustaining amount or ratio, or an independently reproducible tool-and-facility bridge.
EQ-SMIC-ACCESSEVIDENCE INSUFFICIENTCan common shareholders receive recurring cash while expansion, debt and NCI claims are funded?
No cash dividends on ordinary shares are declared or paid, but the evidence does not address executed buybacks or fully reconcile competing claims.
Two audited periods covering dividends and buybacks, with common-share denominator and debt, NCI, and retained-expansion reconciliations.
EQ-GDS-MAINTEVIDENCE INSUFFICIENTWhat recurring cash spend sustains the continuing data-center footprint before new capacity and DayOne economics?
The cited conditional disclosure identifies upgrades and new AI-data-center construction as capex uses, but provides no quantified continuing-footprint sustaining spend.
Same-perimeter quantified sustaining capex or a reproducible operating-unit bridge excluding new builds and DayOne.
EQ-GDS-ACCESSEVIDENCE INSUFFICIENTCan cash move upstream to the listed parent and then common shareholders after funded claims?
The filing states reliance on subsidiary dividends and distributions to fund offshore cash, not that upstream cash or common-owner returns were executed.
Two audited periods of upstream subsidiary/VIE cash and executed common-owner return, reconciled after funded claims and with DayOne separate.
P05.17 / EVIDENCE-GAP ROUTER
Six gaps now have machine-readable addresses.
The current blocked cells are no longer a passive list. Each one is bound to its original question, official source lane, search terms, sufficiency rule and next automatic collection cycle.
ROUTED GAP ≠ NEW EVIDENCE ≠ ISSUER VERDICT ≠ TRADE- 01MISSING EVIDENCE
- 02OFFICIAL INDEX
- 03IMMUTABLE OBJECT
- 04SAME FROZEN RULE
SOURCE LANES / AUTOMATIC
Five sources, six routes
GDS shares one official results lane across two separate questions; every other gap has its own source lane.
issuer_sec_filing_indexhome.alibabagroup.com ↗issuer_results_indexinvestors.gds-services.com ↗issuer_release_indexir.baidu.com ↗issuer_statutory_indexwww.smics.com ↗issuer_results_indexwww.tencent.com ↗FROZEN TASKS / SAME RULES
The six active assignments
Priority is collection priority—not investment conviction. P1 asks for direct quantification; P2 waits for recurring shareholder-access evidence.
Two audited consecutive periods of upstream parent receipts, executed common-owner payments, and restriction/actual-withholding reconciliation.
Two consecutive audited periods with parent-company cash receipts from subsidiaries plus cash dividends or executed repurchases paid by the listed parent, with restricted amounts and withholding identified.
PASS only after the complete metric is observed in two consecutive audited periods; a declaration without payment does not pass.
FAIL if cash remains at subsidiaries, distributions are only declared, or restrictions/tax cannot be reconciled to the parent-to-owner route.
Audited-period identification and a reconciliation of upstream cash, parent liquidity, withholding, and NCI claims without double counting.
Two consecutive audited periods of cash paid to common shareholders, reconciled to parent liquidity, withholding and NCI distributions.
PASS when the next audited period repeats the downstream payment and all specified leakages reconcile without double counting.
FAIL if payment stops, comes from non-recurring asset disposal, or the parent/liability perimeter cannot be reconciled.
Two consecutive periods of executed common-owner cash return, parent funding-source reconciliation, and restricted/VIE cash amounts.
Actual cash dividend paid or executed repurchases in two consecutive reporting periods, reconciled to parent receipts and restricted/VIE cash.
PASS only after cash—not authorization or policy language—reaches shareholders in two consecutive reporting periods and the source of funds reconciles.
FAIL for an unexecuted authorization, a one-off payment, or distributions funded without a proven parent cash route.
Two audited periods covering dividends and buybacks, with common-share denominator and debt, NCI, and retained-expansion reconciliations.
Two consecutive audited periods with cash dividends or executed buybacks for common shareholders, reconciled across H/A shares, debt, NCI and retained-expansion policy.
PASS only after two audited periods show executed common-owner cash return and the cross-venue denominator plus competing claims reconcile.
FAIL while distributions remain zero, retained capital is committed to expansion, or H/A shareholder economics cannot be normalized.
Same-perimeter quantified sustaining capex or a reproducible operating-unit bridge excluding new builds and DayOne.
Same-perimeter sustaining capex for stabilized data centers, or a reproducible per-square-metre/per-MW replacement and upkeep bridge excluding development capacity.
PASS only with a quantified sustaining amount/ratio or an operating-unit bridge that excludes new builds and the deconsolidated DayOne perimeter.
FAIL for total company capex, pipeline guidance or per-MW data that mixes stabilized, development and DayOne assets.
Two audited periods of upstream subsidiary/VIE cash and executed common-owner return, reconciled after funded claims and with DayOne separate.
Two consecutive audited periods of subsidiary/VIE cash distribution to the parent plus executed common-shareholder return, after finance leases, preferred claims and project financing.
PASS only after two audited periods show upstream operating cash and executed common-owner return after all funded claims, with DayOne valued separately.
FAIL while the parent remains a net funder, only loan repayment is observed, or common-owner cash is subordinated to unresolved funded/preferred claims.
P05.19 / ISSUER-SYNTHESIS GATE
Five dossiers reach the gate. None may cross yet.
The gate asks whether each issuer has two complete, governed and receipt-bound evidence tracks. Missing evidence remains EVIDENCE BLOCKED; a rule-level FAIL is never relabelled as a failed company.
GATE STATE ≠ ISSUER SYNTHESIS ≠ VALUATION ≠ WEIGHT ≠ TRADEFAIL CLOSED / NO FORCED VERDICT
The refusal protocol
The system is allowed to stop. It is not allowed to fill a missing fact with confidence.
- 01IDENTITY BOUND
- 02RECEIPTS VERIFIED
- 03TWO TRACKS SUFFICIENT
- 04SYNTHESIS MAY START
Alibaba
NYSE · BABA · USDEQ-BABA-MAINT- governance resolved
- no
- sufficiency passed
- no
- automatic route
- none
- current rule decision pending
- current packet fails its sufficiency rule
EQ-BABA-ACCESS- governance resolved
- no
- sufficiency passed
- no
- automatic route
- GAP-EQ-BABA-ACCESS
next poll
- required evidence missing
Tencent
HKEX · 0700 · HKDEQ-TCEHY-MAINT- governance resolved
- no
- sufficiency passed
- no
- automatic route
- none
- current rule decision pending
- current packet fails its sufficiency rule
EQ-TCEHY-ACCESS- governance resolved
- no
- sufficiency passed
- no
- automatic route
- GAP-EQ-TCEHY-ACCESS
next poll
- required evidence missing
Baidu
NASDAQ · BIDU · USDEQ-BIDU-MAINT- governance resolved
- no
- sufficiency passed
- no
- automatic route
- none
- current rule decision pending
- current packet fails its sufficiency rule
EQ-BIDU-ACCESS- governance resolved
- no
- sufficiency passed
- no
- automatic route
- GAP-EQ-BIDU-ACCESS
next poll
- required evidence missing
SMIC
HKEX · 00981 · HKDEQ-SMIC-MAINT- governance resolved
- no
- sufficiency passed
- no
- automatic route
- none
- current rule decision pending
- current packet fails its sufficiency rule
EQ-SMIC-ACCESS- governance resolved
- no
- sufficiency passed
- no
- automatic route
- GAP-EQ-SMIC-ACCESS
next poll
- required evidence missing
GDS
NASDAQ · GDS · USDEQ-GDS-MAINT- governance resolved
- no
- sufficiency passed
- no
- automatic route
- GAP-EQ-GDS-MAINT
next poll
- required evidence missing
EQ-GDS-ACCESS- governance resolved
- no
- sufficiency passed
- no
- automatic route
- GAP-EQ-GDS-ACCESS
next poll
- required evidence missing
P05.20 / CHINA PILOT RETROSPECTIVE
The pilot did not produce five stock picks. It produced seven controls.
The first China cycle is useful because it refused to manufacture an answer. We can now separate what survived contact with evidence, what failed safely, and what must remain unresolved before the architecture moves to P06.
RETROSPECTIVE ≠ ALPHA CLAIM ≠ ISSUER VERDICT ≠ VALUATION ≠ TRADEREUSABLE CONTROL PLANE
What generalized
Seven controls are portable because each has a machine-verifiable receipt, a stated invariant and a fail-closed boundary.
Content-addressed archive
Every retrieved object is frozen, hashed and attached to an immutable run.
Line-addressed evidence
Claims point to archived page and line coordinates instead of mutable live-page prose.
Closed citation lanes
Every task may use only its frozen ID and its own allowlisted evidence set.
Adversarial no-upgrade
An independent pass may confirm or downgrade evidence, but it cannot silently improve it.
Exact-scope governance
A human decision binds one exact docket and expires when the underlying receipts change.
Automatic gap router
Every unresolved requirement becomes a source contract and a scheduled future poll.
Issuer-synthesis firewall
Rule outcomes and missing evidence cannot leak into issuer verdicts or capital actions.
FAIL CLOSED / PUBLIC RECEIPTS
What failed safely
These are not blemishes to hide. They are proof that the control plane stopped an invalid output before publication or capital interpretation.
Cross-task citation rejected
A model tried to borrow evidence from another research task. The task-scoped validator blocked publication.
Duplicate citation rejected
A repeated citation could have overstated support. The validator forced exact deduplication before the run could continue.
Stale cardinality rejected
A narrative described an older route count. The current-state invariant stopped stale telemetry from becoming public truth.
NON-MONOTONIC EVIDENCE
Motion is not progress
Fresh evidence can move eligibility in either direction. A busy pipeline is not proof of better odds, and a rising document count is not an investment conclusion.
UNRESOLVED ≠ UNKNOWN
What remains unresolved
The dossier system knows exactly why every issuer is blocked. That is more valuable than a confident but unpriced ranking.
Alibaba
evidence blocked- blocking tracks
- 2
- active routes
- 1
- governance pending
- 1
issuer_verdict=not_decidedTencent
evidence blocked- blocking tracks
- 2
- active routes
- 1
- governance pending
- 1
issuer_verdict=not_decidedBaidu
evidence blocked- blocking tracks
- 2
- active routes
- 1
- governance pending
- 1
issuer_verdict=not_decidedSMIC
evidence blocked- blocking tracks
- 2
- active routes
- 1
- governance pending
- 1
issuer_verdict=not_decidedGDS
evidence blocked- blocking tracks
- 2
- active routes
- 2
- governance pending
- 0
issuer_verdict=not_decidedExpected dilution
Required before per-share value can be compared honestly.
GAP-EXPECTED-DILUTIONPoint-in-time market and FX data
Required for matched, reproducible return measurement.
GAP-LICENSED-POINT-IN-TIME-MARKET-FXExecutable cross-venue costs
Required before research attractiveness can become implementable alpha.
GAP-EXECUTABLE-CROSS-VENUE-COSTSCONTROL PLANE ≠ REGIONAL DATA
What transfers to P06
The control plane travels. Regional facts do not. P06 receives verified machinery and explicit open routes—not a preloaded China conclusion.
- Content-addressed archive
- Line-addressed evidence
- Closed citation lanes
- Adversarial no-upgrade
- Exact-scope governance
- Automatic gap router
- Issuer-synthesis firewall
Official-source map
Issuer, exchange and regulator discovery must be rebuilt for each region.
Security identity
Company, security, venue, currency and depositary relationships remain market-specific.
Market calendar and FX
Still needs licensed point-in-time normalization.
Liquidity and implementation costs
Still needs executable spreads, taxes, custody and venue rules.
P05.21 / IMMUTABLE HANDOFF
P05 is closed. P06 starts with memory—not mythology.
The China pilot is now a content-addressed transfer package. It preserves the exact evidence receipts, seven controls, contained failures and open routes that P06 may use. It does not preserve a preferred answer.
P05 HANDOFF ≠ CHINA ALPHA ≠ TOP-FIVE RANKING ≠ ISSUER VERDICT ≠ VALUATION ≠ WEIGHT ≠ TRADEMAXIMUM CONTRAST / NOT A RANKING
Why these five companies
They were selected for maximum contrast, not maximum expected return. Together they force one method to survive five different AGI economics, capital structures, disclosure regimes and security-access paths.
Alibaba
ALI-NYSE-ADS- What the issuer stress-tests
- Tests whether visible cloud and model demand survives capex, dilution, VIE and cross-venue owner-cash reconciliation.
- Why it adds contrast
- Asset-light cash engine collides with accelerating infrastructure spend.
Tencent
TENCENT-HKEX-HKD- What the issuer stress-tests
- Tests whether a self-funded consumer platform can isolate AI economics from group cash and capital returns.
- Why it adds contrast
- Strong cash generation, but only partial AI-specific disclosure.
Baidu
BAIDU-NASDAQ-ADS- What the issuer stress-tests
- Tests whether direct AI revenue labels bridge to durable owner cash through legacy decline and restructuring.
- Why it adds contrast
- Direct model exposure with weaker cash conversion and separation risk.
SMIC
SMIC-HKEX-H- What the issuer stress-tests
- Tests whether strategic scarcity survives export controls, subsidies and extreme sustaining-capital needs.
- Why it adds contrast
- Sovereign supply bottleneck with heavy capital intensity and multiple securities.
GDS
GDS-NASDAQ-ADS- What the issuer stress-tests
- Tests whether physical AI demand becomes shareholder cash after development capex, leverage, leases and structural claims.
- Why it adds contrast
- Contracted capacity with financing and owner-access complexity.
The selection did not use expected return, current valuation, market-cap rank, political preference or trade readiness. Other Chinese issuers remain in Discovery; omission is not a negative view.
PILOT DESIGN
One finite sample. Five different failure surfaces.
The pilot deliberately spans platform economics, model monetization, semiconductor sovereignty, physical infrastructure, cash-rich and capital-intensive businesses, ADR/OTC/HK/A-share access, and heterogeneous filings. That makes it a methodology test rather than a disguised portfolio.
- 01distinct positions in the agi value chain
- 02contrasting cash generation and capital intensity
- 03contrasting security access and structural claims
- 04heterogeneous primary source and accounting surfaces
- 05finite pilot scope with reusable global methodology
BYTE-FOR-BYTE / SHA-256
What exactly was frozen
Every item below was copied byte-for-byte into a content-addressed archive. The public receipt exposes the hash; the audit replays it on every quality gate.
- artifactART-COLLECTION-RUNevidence run
ced9ca032b64999668f10ef51e322e3e160fe6c274738236171e81f88e6ab063 - artifactART-ANALYSIS-RUNmachine assessment run
bfaf3612a3c23887aec639b3075993262576e5fd86505b290f8a2f8309c817bc - artifactART-VERIFICATION-RUNadversarial verification run
4a85826a63dfe0be6f62b52ef5a93a808ec8267398359aea55a376ddf8f28f11 - artifactART-DOCKET-RUNdeterministic rule docket
e66c7c9803c7427e163609938b6156104cea5123bf4303539842f27851a3e785 - artifactART-GOVERNANCE-PROJECTIONexact scope governance projection
44c870131c0bfc262e4f35205e7a725a701063ea531a417ff98c2785b48d584c - artifactART-GOVERNANCE-REVIEWevidence bound review packet
30454c647d533154512acb6d63ded1e08dcc61fa559e23e1722561f93f712503 - artifactART-ISSUER-MATRIX-RUNtwo track issuer matrix
4f436c8445aa504c8e05159f1e1745ba8c7be7ff0c244dfee1e4a9b929a73aef - artifactART-GAP-ROUTER-RUNautomatic gap router
d31fd6ddbaed4303e357e5536a023f4ddb8ca09fff1da0ef7259c13ee048eb3a - artifactART-SYNTHESIS-GATE-RUNissuer synthesis firewall
cb5341d6451a743e2f36788158498964b870300bec5b0bb0c032c8f55b9a0e1e - artifactART-PILOT-RETROSPECTIVE-RUNaudited pilot retrospective
7245b1846386911a692eed7db91e06e5c9da1c482df058c0a231d807f9745c73 - artifactART-SECURITY-MASTER-CONTRACTregional security identity contract
71be87b445b67860b33dbc46a8778c29dc3779c7413347f1fc18733d6ae76553 - artifactART-EVIDENCE-QUEUE-CONTRACTfrozen retrieval contracts
a2d44b7e83f8fe986b9bb793e854e617a05fb5ae0c6e0a2502af52ec7c5777ae - artifactART-PILOT-RETROSPECTIVE-CONTRACTtransfer control contract
f09690ca8c4eb2698ee2c9dd21889634f34a968aacf39f38bf38b8367b8d2549 - artifactART-GOVERNANCE-DECISION-01signed rule scope decision
cf818ba7f5bc422bced8a9fb35a36f3867188fc5ca25dec7d17cefab23b9a618 - artifactART-GOVERNANCE-DECISION-02signed rule scope decision
142d7bb50a5b17256be23e57252e16c57d264f31343dcd740e0586e74595d7e7 - artifactART-GOVERNANCE-DECISION-03signed rule scope decision
833f12308f7be8665784f32371d2bceb8db79b307386be9685839a01e4d05236 - artifactART-GOVERNANCE-DECISION-04signed rule scope decision
1c248d096f5241c506b44035cf42a5bb36215ee18abe19f9ef921fc5d8135ec9
CONTROL PLANE / TRANSFER
What travels to P06
The controls and unresolved routes travel. China-specific facts, market calendars, FX, liquidity and ownership mechanics must be rebuilt or licensed for the matched experiment.
- 01portable control · collectionCTRL-CONTENT-ADDRESSED-ARCHIVE
Every retrieved object is bounded, hashed and attached to an immutable run.
- 02portable control · analysisCTRL-LINE-ADDRESSED-EVIDENCE
Machine readings cite archived page/line coordinates rather than live-page prose.
- 03portable control · analysisCTRL-CLOSED-CITATION-LANES
Each task can emit only its frozen task ID and allowlisted citation IDs.
- 04portable control · verificationCTRL-ADVERSARIAL-NO-UPGRADE
A separate source-bound pass may confirm or downgrade but cannot upgrade evidence.
- 05portable control · governanceCTRL-EXACT-SCOPE-GOVERNANCE
A decision binds one exact docket and cannot survive changed receipts by implication.
- 06portable control · routerCTRL-AUTOMATIC-GAP-ROUTER
Every current evidence gap maps to a frozen automatic source contract and future poll.
- 07portable control · synthesisCTRL-ISSUER-SYNTHESIS-FIREWALL
Missing evidence and rule-level outcomes cannot become issuer verdicts or capital actions.
P05.1 / NORMALIZATION WORKBENCH · v0.4.0
Five valuation workpapers. Zero valuation approvals.
The arithmetic is inspectable: security claim, share basis, liquidity, funded obligations, an observed post-capex residual and dated market inputs. Owner cash remains explicitly uncomputed.
PROVISIONAL RESEARCH ARITHMETIC · NOT A PRICE TARGETRECONCILIATION MATRIX
One control plane, five incompatible perimeters
Numbers become comparable only after their accounting perimeter, date and quality state are visible.
APPROVED
| company | share basis | net cash / (debt) | observed residual | provisional market cap | valuation gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALINYSE:BABA | 2.485624bn current basic ADS-equivalent2026-08-31 | +24.454 RMBbn2026-03-31 | −45.808 RMB bnreconciled_company_fcf | RMB 1,891.21bn2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 FX | BLOCKED |
| TCEHYHKEX:00700 | 9.103154bn legal issued shares2026-09-04 | +107.145 RMBbn2025-12-31 | +214.8 RMB bnreconciled_company_fcf | RMB 3,454.502bn2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 FX | BLOCKED |
| BIDUNASDAQ:BIDU | 339.187m dated legal ADS-equivalent2026-07-14 | +149.617 RMBbn2025-12-31 | −15.086 RMB bnreconciled_period_corrected | RMB 226.692bn2026-09-04 · 2026-09-03 FX | BLOCKED |
| SMICHKEX:00981 | 8.561152bn issuer-wide issued shares2026-08-31 | −0.66 USDbn2025-12-31 | −5.206 USD bnderived_residual | USD 73.381bn2026-09-04 · 2026-09-04 FX | BLOCKED |
| GDSNASDAQ:GDS | 194.288m May economic common ADS-equivalent2026-05-31 | −31.176 RMBbn2025-12-31 | −1.326 RMB bnperiod_corrected | USD 6.094bn2026-09-04 · 2026-09-04 FX | BLOCKED |
quality / evidence states
- Audited or directly reportedAudited or directly reported
- Company-defined bridgeCompany-defined bridge
- Arithmetic derived from reported inputsArithmetic derived from reported inputs
- Derived; scope review incompleteDerived; scope review incomplete
- Known denominator is incompleteKnown denominator is incomplete
- Primary disclosures conflictPrimary disclosures conflict
- Quote and denominator dates do not matchQuote and denominator dates do not match
- Not disclosed; no estimate insertedNot disclosed; no estimate inserted
CN-ALI · NYSE:BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
One ADS represents eight ordinary shares of the Cayman issuer; operating exposure includes contractual VIE claims.
1 ADS = 8 ordinary sharesAudited or directly reported19,884,988,918 issued ordinary shares ÷ 8
2026-08-31 · issued_basic_equivalentKnown denominator is incompletePost-month-end movements and a fully diluted point-in-time bridge; P05.2 identifies up to 931.378m disclosed potential ordinary shares.Cash / debt bridge
+24.454 RMBbnLiquid assets included
- Cash and equivalents131.53 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Short-term investments155.31 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
Funded obligations included
- Current bank borrowings30.614 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Non-current bank borrowings47.45 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Senior notes117.485 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Convertible senior notes55.861 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Exchangeable bonds10.976 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
2026-03-31 · Derived; scope review incomplete
Observed post-capex bridge
−45.808 RMB bnRMB 76.213bn OCF − RMB 122.021bn cash purchases of PP&E = RMB −45.808bn observed residual; − RMB 0.874bn intangibles + RMB 0.073bn buyer-protection adjustment = RMB −46.609bn company FCFTotal capex and cash PP&E differ. Company FCF is reconciled, but maintenance, growth and AI-specific capex are not disclosed; owner cash remains null.
USD 113.24 × 2.485624bn current basic ADS-eq × 6.719 CNY/USDFX CNY=X · 6.719 CNY per USD · 2026-09-03
Quote and denominator dates do not matchWhat still blocks valuation
- The 31 August basic-equivalent base is near the quote date, but the disclosed 931.378m potential-share bucket is not converted into an approved dilution method.
- Funded-obligation bridge is derived and still requires a consolidated double-count review.
- Maintenance and AI-specific capex are undisclosed.
CN-TCEHY · HKEX:00700
Tencent Holdings Limited
Hong Kong-listed ordinary shares of the Cayman issuer; group exposure includes controlled businesses, investments and contractual structures.
1 HK share = 1 ordinary shareAudited or directly reportedHKEX issued shares; 7.852m repurchased shares still pending cancellation
2026-09-04 · issued_before_pending_cancellationKnown denominator is incompleteEconomic post-cancellation base and a consistent diluted bridge.Cash / debt bridge
+107.145 RMBbnLiquid assets included
- Cash141.041 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Term deposits and other liquid assets353.837 RMBbncompany_bridge
Funded obligations included
- Borrowings250.987 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Notes payable136.746 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
2025-12-31 · Company-defined bridge
Observed post-capex bridge
+214.8 RMB bnRMB 303.1bn OCF − RMB 88.3bn capex paid = RMB 214.8bn observed residual; − RMB 24.6bn media content − RMB 7.6bn lease liabilities = RMB 182.6bn company FCFTencent’s company FCF is exactly reconciled and includes recurring media-content and lease payments. Maintenance versus growth capex and AI-specific returns are not isolated; owner cash remains null.
HKD 442.8 × 9.103154bn legal issued shares × 0.857 CNY/HKDFX HKDCNY=X · 0.857 CNY per HKD · 2026-09-03
Quote and denominator dates do not matchWhat still blocks valuation
- The legal count includes 7.852m shares pending cancellation; the economic and dilution denominators still require one consistent policy.
- Listed and unlisted investments must be valued without double counting operating earnings or cash.
- AI-specific profit and capex remain undisclosed.
CN-BIDU · NASDAQ:BIDU
Baidu, Inc.
One ADS represents eight Class A shares of the Cayman issuer; the operating claim includes contractual VIE arrangements.
1 ADS = 8 Class A sharesAudited or directly reported2.713492250bn dated legal Class A + Class B shares ÷ 8
2026-07-14 · legal_total_economic_ads_equivalentQuote and denominator dates do not matchA target-date roll-forward and an expected-diluted bridge after awards and repurchases.Cash / debt bridge
+149.617 RMBbnLiquid assets included
- Cash and equivalents24.606 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Short-term investments90.661 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Long-term time deposits and HTM investments123.862 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
Funded obligations included
- Short-term loans7.626 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Current long-term loans14.765 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Long-term loans3.369 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Current notes payable4.56 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Notes payable51.021 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Current convertible notes1.459 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Convertible notes6.712 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
2025-12-31 · Arithmetic derived from reported inputs
Observed post-capex bridge
−15.086 RMB bnFY2025 consolidated OCF RMB −3.013bn − RMB 12.073bn acquisition of fixed assets = RMB −15.086bn company FCF and observed residualCorrection: RMB 2.6bn was Q4 OCF, not FY2025 OCF. The annual figures reconcile; there is no reporting conflict. Maintenance versus growth capex remains undisclosed, so owner cash is null.
USD 99.47 × 339.187m dated legal ADS-eq × 6.719 CNY/USDFX CNY=X · 6.719 CNY per USD · 2026-09-03
Quote and denominator dates do not matchWhat still blocks valuation
- The 14 July legal denominator is reproducible but 52 days stale at the market snapshot; the Q2 diluted weighted average is a scenario input, not a spot count.
- Maintenance and growth capex are not separated; annual FCF therefore cannot be renamed owner cash.
- Long-term investments are included conservatively but their liquidity and encumbrance need instrument-level review.
- Kunlunxin separation can change the retained economic claim.
CN-SMIC · HKEX:00981
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation
Hong Kong-listed shares of the PRC-incorporated issuer. The valuation shortcut applies the HK quote to the company-wide diluted denominator; cross-market settlement and class details remain under review.
HK 00981 + STAR 688981 share baseKnown denominator is incomplete6,014,407,231 HK shares + 2,546,744,622 STAR A shares
2026-08-31 · hk_plus_star_issuedKnown denominator is incompleteA fully diluted point-in-time bridge and executable cross-market valuation parity.Cash / debt bridge
−0.66 USDbnLiquid assets included
- Cash and equivalents5.873 USDbnAudited or directly reported
- Current FVPL liquid instruments0.381 USDbncompany_bridge
- Financial assets at amortized cost5.683 USDbncompany_bridge
Funded obligations included
- Borrowings12.588 USDbnAudited or directly reported
- Lease liabilities0.008 USDbnAudited or directly reported
2025-12-31 · Company-defined bridge
Observed post-capex bridge
−5.206 USD bnUS$ 3.194303bn OCF − US$ 8.399826bn cash acquisition of PP&E = US$ −5.205523bn observed residualThe report says most capex funded capacity expansion, but gives no maintenance split. The negative residual is not itself negative owner cash; owner cash remains null.
HKD 67.2 × 8.561152bn issuer-wide issued shares ÷ 7.84 HKD/USDFX USDHKD=X · 7.84 HKD per USD · 2026-09-04
Quote and denominator dates do not matchWhat still blocks valuation
- HK and STAR issued bases are reconciled at 31 August, but applying one venue’s quote to both classes is still a non-executable shortcut.
- Maintenance capex and subsidy-normalized returns are unresolved.
- Advanced-AI revenue cannot be isolated from the filing.
CN-GDS · NASDAQ:GDS
GDS Holdings Limited
One ADS represents eight Class A shares of the Cayman issuer; the operating exposure includes VIE arrangements and a separately attributed DayOne claim.
1 ADS = 8 Class A sharesAudited or directly reported(1.603020903bn legal outstanding − 48.718352m depositary award reserve) ÷ 8
2026-05-31 · legal_less_depositary_award_reserveQuote and denominator dates do not matchA target-date roll-forward and an instrument-level expected-diluted bridge.Cash / debt bridge
−31.176 RMBbnLiquid assets included
- Cash and equivalents14.306 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Time deposits0.668 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
Funded obligations included
- Borrowings26.315 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Convertible bonds12.144 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Current finance leases0.636 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
- Non-current finance leases7.054 RMBbnAudited or directly reported
2025-12-31 · Arithmetic derived from reported inputs
Observed post-capex bridge
−1.326 RMB bnRMB 3.365254bn continuing OCF − RMB 4.691137bn cash payments for PP&E and land-use rights = RMB −1.325883bn observed residualCorrection: reported capex RMB4.6106bn is not the cash PP&E line. Maintenance and expansion capex remain unseparated; DayOne economics require a separate bridge and owner cash remains null.
USD 31.365 × 194.288m dated economic common ADS-eqFX not required for displayed market cap · share-denominator date still mismatched
Quote and denominator dates do not matchWhat still blocks valuation
- The 31 May legal and economic common anchors are reproducible but 96 days stale at the market snapshot; the Q2 diluted weighted average remains a scenario endpoint.
- Preferreds, convertibles, awards and the 48m borrowed delta shares require one conversion-offset bridge without double counting.
- VIE cash transferability and DayOne attribution remain structural questions.
- Maintenance capex is not disclosed.
COMPANY DOSSIER · Alibaba
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Audited annual filing plus official results; cloud and AI disclosure is meaningful, but AI cash economics are not separately reported.
Reported financial map
FY2026 reported revenue; +3% year over year.
reportedAttributable to ordinary shareholders.
reportedNet cash provided by operating activities.
reportedCompany total, primarily cloud equipment/data centers plus logistics and campuses.
reportedOperating cash flow less RMB122.021bn purchases of property and equipment; not identical to total capex.
company definedFY2026 expense, approximately 1% of revenue.
reportedAI linkage: what the filings support
- Cloud external revenue grew 40% in the final fiscal quarter.
- AI-related products represented 30% of cloud external revenue in that quarter.
- Alibaba reported cloud services across 34 regions at fiscal year-end.
Owner-cash bridge
AI demand is visible, but FY2026 investment outran operating cash. A reproducible AI-attributable owner-cash bridge is not yet available.
Risk flags
- VIE and enhanced VIE contractual claims
- Investment-cycle duration and cloud pricing
- SBC and conglomerate capital allocation
Unresolved before valuation
- Reconcile ADS/ordinary share count on the valuation date.
- Separate maintenance, growth and AI-specific capex.
- Test cloud unit economics under lower model pricing.
Primary evidence
COMPANY DOSSIER · Tencent
Tencent Holdings Limited
Audited annual results and official investor materials; group cash flow is strong, while AI-specific revenue and returns are not separately reconciled.
Reported financial map
FY2025 reported revenue; +14% year over year.
reportedReported operating margin 32%.
reportedProfit attributable to equity holders; +16%.
reportedOfficial FY2025 non-IFRS cash measure; +18%.
company definedFY2025 reported capex; +3%.
reportedCompany-reported at 31 December 2025.
reportedAI linkage: what the filings support
- Management attributes advertising, game engagement and cloud revenue/profit improvements partly to AI.
- FinTech and Business Services gross profit rose 17% to RMB116.6bn; the segment includes, but is not limited to, cloud.
- A later official presentation reported Tencent Cloud adjusted operating profit of RMB5bn for 2025.
Owner-cash bridge
Tencent can presently fund AI investment from group cash generation. The missing link is the incremental return on AI talent and infrastructure, not group liquidity.
Risk flags
- AI returns not separately disclosed
- Conglomerate and investment-portfolio attribution
- Policy, data and platform regulation
Unresolved before valuation
- Reconcile fully diluted share count and buybacks.
- Isolate cloud and AI incremental profit/capex.
- Value the listed investment portfolio without double counting.
Primary evidence
COMPANY DOSSIER · Baidu
Baidu, Inc.
Audited filing plus official results with unusually explicit AI-business revenue; owner-cash conversion and segment comparability remain weak.
Reported financial map
FY2025 reported revenue; −3% year over year.
reportedCompany-defined grouping; +48%, 39% of Baidu General Business.
company definedCompany-defined FY2025 revenue; +34%.
company definedIncludes RMB16.2bn impairment; excluding it, company cites RMB10.4bn operating income.
reportedAnnual figure. The RMB2.6bn cited in the same results release is explicitly Q4 OCF, not a conflicting FY value.
period correctedFY2025 audited cash-flow amount; maintenance and growth are not separated.
reportedFY2025 OCF less acquisition of fixed assets; the annual bridge reconciles exactly.
company definedCash, short-term investments, long-term time deposits and held-to-maturity investments; restricted cash excluded.
reportedAI linkage: what the filings support
- AI-native Marketing revenue grew 301% to RMB9.8bn in the company-defined disclosure.
- AI Applications revenue was RMB10.2bn, up 5%.
- The proposed Kunlunxin spin-off changes the economic-linkage question and must be modeled separately.
Owner-cash bridge
The direct AI revenue map is improving faster than group cash conversion. Impairments, legacy-business decline and the proposed Kunlunxin separation prevent a clean bridge.
Risk flags
- Legacy-search contraction and traffic economics
- Impairment and autonomous-driving capital intensity
- Kunlunxin spin-off economic linkage
Unresolved before valuation
- Reconcile annual capex and owner cash on a consistent basis.
- Model the retained Kunlunxin claim after any spin-off.
- Separate subsidized AI volume from durable gross profit.
Primary evidence
COMPANY DOSSIER · SMIC
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation
Audited exchange filing with strong financial and capacity disclosure; direct advanced-AI accelerator exposure is not separately evidenced.
Reported financial map
FY2025 reported revenue; +16.2%.
reportedReported gross margin 21.0%.
reportedFY2025 reported operating profit.
reportedFY2025 reported amount.
reportedFY2025 audited net cash generated from operating activities.
reportedFY2025 audited amount. US$7.664bn was the 2024 comparator, not 2025 capex.
reportedAnnual capacity utilization reported for 2025.
reportedAI linkage: what the filings support
- Domestic foundry capacity is a strategic substitution bottleneck, but strategic importance is not a cash-flow measure.
- Year-end monthly capacity reached 1.059 million 8-inch-equivalent wafers.
- The filing does not permit us to attribute a defined share of revenue to advanced AI accelerators.
Owner-cash bridge
Audited cash PP&E acquisition was US$8.400bn—about 12.3 times profit attributable to owners and 90.1% of revenue. Until maintenance/growth/policy-supported capex are separated, shareholder cash economics remain blocked.
Risk flags
- Technology and export-control constraints
- Very high capital intensity
- Policy support versus minority-holder return
Unresolved before valuation
- Map disclosed process nodes and end markets without inference.
- Normalize grants, subsidies and capitalized costs.
- Estimate maintenance capex and through-cycle returns.
Primary evidence
COMPANY DOSSIER · GDS
GDS Holdings Limited
Audited filing provides a full cash, debt and VIE bridge; AI demand is not separately reported and the DayOne deconsolidation complicates comparisons.
Reported financial map
FY2025 continuing operations; +10.8%.
reportedCompany-defined measure; margin 47.3%.
company definedNet cash provided by continuing operating activities.
reportedExcludes acquisitions, investments and time deposits.
reportedShort- and long-term borrowings at 31 December 2025; excludes convertible bonds and leases.
reportedAt 31 December 2025; cash availability across entities requires structural review.
reportedAI linkage: what the filings support
- Data-center capacity and deliverable power are physical inputs to model scaling, but the filing does not isolate AI customers or AI revenue.
- Two customers generated 29.0% and 12.0% of 2025 net revenue.
- DayOne ceased to be consolidated at the end of 2024, so international growth cannot be read directly from consolidated revenue.
Owner-cash bridge
Operating cash was RMB1.245bn below continuing-operations capex before considering convertible bonds, leases, financing costs or DayOne. The filing says capex has primarily been financed by financing cash flows.
Risk flags
- VIE and cash-transfer restrictions
- Leverage, convertibles and lease obligations
- Customer concentration and development timing
- DayOne economic attribution
Unresolved before valuation
- Build full net-debt bridge including convertibles and leases.
- Separate maintenance from expansion capex.
- Trace listed shareholder claim on DayOne and VIE cash.
Primary evidence
EVIDENCE CONTROL PLANE
The common dossier protocol
- 01
Resolve the exact listed security and the economic claim it represents.
- 02
Anchor reported facts to an audited annual filing; label later releases as subsequent evidence.
- 03
Separate AI-linked disclosure from company-wide revenue and cash flow.
- 04
Reconcile operating cash, capex, dilution, financing and structural claims before valuation.
- 05
Keep valuation, portfolio weight and trading locked until point-in-time market inputs pass review.